Jonathan Villar doesn’t own elite peripheral stats early this season, which is a bit of a concern, but he has looked outstanding overall. Through nine games, he’s hitting .333 with five extra-base hits (two home runs), four RBIs, and two steals. He only owns a 25% hard-hit rate with an 88 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days, though. With that being said, his hits simply are falling, as he has scored double-digit fantasy points in six of his last seven games. Villar gets an elite matchup against Marco Estrada tonight, and he’ll be playing in a hitter friendly stadium. He’s expected to hit third in the Baltimore Orioles lineup, and Villar’s total is a bit too low at the moment.
I’m all in on this total for Matt Chapman. Similarly to Villar, his peripheral stats don’t stick out, as he owns a 38% hard-hit rate with a 91 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. With that being said, he’s hitting .261 with five extra-base hits (three home runs) and six RBIs. He has been significantly less consistent recently, but he’ll be moving from one of the more pitcher friendly stadiums in the MLB to one of the more hitter friendly stadiums. Chapman also gets an elite matchup against Andrew Cashner, and he owns 0.03 wOBA and 0.066 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. This game is expected to feature plenty of runs, and there’s an edge to taking the overs.
Play $25 on Jonathan Villar OVER 6.5 fantasy points and Matt Chapman OVER 5.5 fantasy points to win $62.50 (2.5x)
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