Jorge Alfaro has caught fire recently, hitting .308 with a .462 slugging percentage and an .803 OPS over his last 10 games. Even with those numbers, he has posted 5+ fantasy points in only six of those games. He also owns a 43% hard hit rate over the last 15 days, but he has posted a 47% groundball rate over that span, as well. Furthermore, Alfaro has recorded only a 90 MPH exit velocity in those games. Most importantly, he gets a matchup against Trevor Bauer, who has been one of the best pitchers in the MLB this season. Alfaro brings -0.007 wOBA and -0.026 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching in this game. He’s also hitting sixth in the Miami Marlins lineup, and there’s no reason to believe he’ll find success in this particular matchup.
Byron Buxton is another player who has found success recently, posting a .242 average with a .485 slugging percentage and a .771 OPS over his last 10 games. He also owns three steals over that span. Buxton has seemingly gotten a bit lucky, though, as he only owns a 28% hard-hit and an 89 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He gets a tough matchup against Gerrit Cole, who has struggled at times this season, but have also limited his opponents opportunities. Buxton is expected to hit ninth in the Minnesota Twins lineup, and he’ll see limited at-bats in a terrible matchup. While he has hit right-handed pitching well, it’s never ideal for to take the over on a player, who will see limited opportunities against an elite pitcher.
Play $25 on Jorge Alfaro UNDER 4.5 fantasy points and Byron Buxton UNDER 4.5 fantasy points to win $62.50 (2.5x)
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