I’m siding with elite pitching over elite hitting with this play. Fernando Tatis Jr. gets a matchup against Max Scherzer, who has struggled at times this season, but has also gotten unlucky. His advanced metrics suggest he’ll see positive regression as he gets more games under his belt. Scherzer has also found success at home, where he will be throwing tonight. Tatis has looked outstanding recently, as he’s averaging 11.6 fantasy points per game over his last 10 games. He owns a 50% ground ball rate over the last 15 days, though, and Scherzer’s biggest struggles have been with home runs throughout his career. In a limited sample size, Tatis owns -0.143 wOBA and -0.057 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. Scherzer is one of the best in the MLB, and Tatis finding more than a base hit in this game is far from a given.
Christian Yelich owns elite metrics, and he has been at his best against right-handed pitching. With that being said, he gets a tough matchup against Jacob deGrom, who has been one of the premiere pitchers in the MLB. He has also been able to limit his opponents home runs, which will slow down Yelich’s production. The latter is also hitting only .227 with a .273 slugging percentage and a .579 OPS on the road this season. Yelich is averaging 5.9 fantasy points per game away from home, and deGrom should find ways to neutralize him in this matchup.
Play $25 on Fernando Tatis Jr. UNDER 6.0 fantasy points and Christian Yelich UNDER 7.5 fantasy points to win $62.50 (2.5x)
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