Starlin Castro is hitting .263 over his last 10 games, but he has displayed virtually no power, failing to record a single extra-base hit. That lack of power could limit his upside, even with playing in one of the more hitter friendly stadiums in the MLB tonight. The travel may be a concern, as well, though, as Castro is hitting only .194 with a .226 slugging percentage and a .445 OPS through eight road games. He’s averaging only 3.3 fantasy points in game in those contests. He gets a plus matchup against Aaron Nola, who has struggled with command early this season, but is in line for positive regression as he continues to start. Nola owns a 49.3% ground ball rate this season, while Castro owns a 59% ground ball rate over the last 15 days. The major issue with Nola has been his 31.8% HR/FB rate, which is up from his career 13.3% rate. I don’t expect the Miami Marlins to find much offensive success in this game, leaving Castro as a solid under option.
J.D. Martinez has been one consistent in the Boston Red Sox offense this season, as he’s hitting .344 with a .538 slugging percentage and a .968 OPS. He has yet to put his power on display in Boston this season, but he posted a .334/.683/1.088 line at home in 2018. Martinez gets one of the best matchups on the slate against Jordan Zimmermann, and the Red Sox feature an implied run total of 5.7 runs tonight. Martinez also enters this game with 46% hard-hit and 40% fly ball rates to go along with a 94 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. I expect Boston to find plenty of success, and Martinez will see plenty of opportunities to score fantasy points in this game.
Play $25 on Starlin Castro UNDER 5.0 fantasy points and J.D. Martinez OVER 7.5 fantasy points to win $62.50 (2.5x)
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