Nelson Cruz hasn’t been an elite option this season, but he has found some success recently. Over his last 10 games, he’s hitting .300 with a .500 slugging percentage and a .947 OPS. He also enters this game with 50% hard-hit and 33% fly ball rates with a 95 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Cruz gets a great matchup against Alex Cobb, who will be making his second start of the season. Cobb’s numbers are a bit skewed because of his lack of starts this season, but he has struggled quite a bit in recent years, and there’s little reason to believe he won’t struggle in Baltimore’s hitter friendly stadium.
On the other side, Cedric Mullins is hitting ninth in the Baltimore Orioles lineup, which will limit his at-bats in this game. He’s also hitting .089 with a .161 slugging percentage and a .348 OPS on the season. Those numbers all drop over his last 10 games, as well. Mullins brings 18% hard-hit and 50% ground ball rates with an 85 mph exit velocity into this game, as well. He gets a matchup against Jose Berrios, who has looked dominant early this season. Berrios also owns a 43.4% ground ball rate in 2019, and there’s very little reason to believe Mullins will find enough success to hit the over in this game.
Play $25 on Nelson Cruz OVER 7.5 fantasy points and Cedric Mullins UNDER 4.5 fantasy points to win $62.50 (2.5x)
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