I’m taking the small discount on the Colorado Rockies players tonight. Sure, eight fantasy points is a lot, but that likely isn’t as high as they will be this season. Charlie Blackmon has played only 4 of his 17 games at home, where he sees a major boost from the altitude. In those four home games, he’s hitting .357 with a .571 slugging percentage and a 1.045 OPS. Blackmon gets an elite matchup against Zach Eflin tonight, and he enters this game with 0.015 wOBA and 0.034 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. He also owns 47% hard-hit and 42% fly ball rates over the last 15 days, and Blackmon should continue to find elite success when playing at home this season.
Nolan Arenado is in the same boat as Blackmon, as he’s hitting .316 with a .421 slugging percentage and a .785 OPS through five home games. Those numbers are down quite a bit from his home splits last season, and he should see positive regression as he plays more games in Colorado. Arenado isn’t nearly as good against right-handed pitching, but his numbers are far from bad. He has also been slightly colder recently, posting 38% hard-hit and 42% fly ball rates over the last 15 days. This is a small stack, and I’m expecting the Rockies to find plenty of runs tonight. If that’s the case, Blackmon and Arenado should both find success in this matchup.
NOTE: Add Trey Mancini UNDER 6.5 fantasy points to get 5x ($25 —> $125). If only using one Colorado player, keep Blackmon, remove Arenado.
Play $25 on Charlie Blackmon OVER 8 fantasy points and Nolan Arenado OVER 8 fantasy points to win $62.50 (2.5x)
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