I’m starting the season out with an advantage to the pitchers. Harrison Bader is expected to hit eighth in the St. Louis Cardinals lineup, potentially limiting his at-bats. He has also struggled against right-handed pitching, posting -0.073 wOBA and -0.095 ISO differentials against righties. Bader gets a matchup against Jhoulys Chacin, who held right-handed batters to a .171 average with a .284 slugging percentage and a .234 wOBA last season. Without the potential for much power, Bader will need an ideal situation to more than a single and RBI/run to hit the over. He needs a lot to go right to find the over, while not much needs to go wrong to lock in the under.
Dansby Swanson is another player that could see limited at-bats, as he’s expected to hit eighth in the Atlanta Braves offense. He has been a more consistent and more powerful option against right-handed pitching, but he gets a terrible matchup against Aaron Nola. Nola help right-handed batters to a .203 average with a .325 slugging percentage and a .252 wOBA last season. He was an elite pitcher in Philadelphia, and I’m not expecting Atlanta to score much in this game, specifically at the end of their lineup. If that’s the case, Swanson will need to get on base multiple times to hit the over, which is worrisome. The under is significantly more likely, specifically in this matchup.
Play $25 on Harrison Bader UNDER 5.5 fantasy points and Dansby Swanson UNDER 4.5 fantasy points to win $62.50 (2.5x)
Follow Justin on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
