Welcome to another edition of Bales’ MLB Game Theory. In this article, I will outline my favorite plays and game theory thoughts for this MLB slate. You can find all of Karma staff’s cores through our MLB Premium Package. Without further ado, here’s our MLB Game Theory article!
| Pitcher | 1B/C | 2B | 3B | SS | OF |
| Woodruff | Realmuto | Segura | Bryant | Tatis | Phillies |
| Musgrove | Freeman | Merrifield | Dozier | Baez | Acuna |
| Fried | Rizzo | Albies | Machado | Gregorius | Cubs |
| Megill | Lowe | India | Diaz | Franco | Benintendi |
| Perez | Bell | Frazier | Urias | Lindor | Garcia |
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*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3-max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your MLB lineups.
MLB is arguably the most volatile of the major sports in DFS. That gives us a massive edge to focus on in tournaments. It allows us to avoid the chalk, make elite pivots, and find success in GPPs. In this article, I’ll be focusing heavily on the game theory of what I’m looking at for tonight. Keep in mind, I’ll also be outlining cash options at each position.
Pitchers
It feels odd that I don’t necessarily have to say we have a double spend-up slate because of the odd pricing on DraftKings. There are two clear-cut top cash games options tonight. Brandon Woodruff enters this game with a 2.91 xFIP and a 31.1% strikeout rate through 16 starts. He gets an interesting matchup against the New York Mets, who are getting healthy and better offensively as the days pass. With that being said, Woodruff is a -132 favorite in a game set at only 7 runs, and I prefer elite pitching to a struggling lineup that’s finally heating up. You’re pairing the Brewers’ ace with Joe Musgrove, who boasts a 3.29 xFIP and a 30% strikeout rate this season. He gets a home matchup against a hot Washington Nationals lineup, but he’s a -214 favorite in a game set at 8 runs. Once again, I prefer elite pitching to high-end hitting, especially with Musgrove’s ridiculous price tag. The other reasonable cash game option is Max Fried, although I wouldn’t personally move off of Woodruff at the top and Musgrove is only $200 more expensive than Fried.
In tournaments, your attention quickly turns to Tylor Megill. He’s only thrown in 2 games for the New York Mets, posting a 3.57 xFIP and a 30% strikeout rate. The rookie found plenty of success in the minors, and his strikeout rate seems relatively sustainable at this point. Megill gets a matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers, and he’s an elite tournament option for his price tag. Rich Hill and Kolby Allard are two more options that could go overlooked. They both get solid matchups, though, as they are sizeable favorites and will boast strikeout potential in their specific matchups. Mike Minor is due for positive regression, and he gets a plus matchup against the Cincinnati Reds, who have struggled at times on the road this season. Dylan Cease can also be considered for his strikeout upside, although he isn’t a pitcher I’m overly interested in on this slate.
Catcher/First Base
Catcher is surprisingly easy in cash games since we aren’t likely to punt the position tonight. JT Realmuto has been struggling recently, dropping his price tag under $4k. Even with recent struggles, he’s posted 27 DK points over his last 2 games, and he gets a matchup in a game set at 11 runs tonight. If you aren’t using Realmuto, it’s because you got up to Willson Contreras, who costs $1k more tonight. With cash games being concentrated, there are several great GPP options. If you’re spending up, Salvador Perez makes an elite option. Mike Zunino, Tyler Stephenson, Max Stassi, and Christian Vazquez are all viable mid-priced options with Zunino sticking out in the bunch. If you’re punting, Jonah Heim is the clear option. Roberto Perez is a reasonable punt if you need a minimum priced option.
First base is interesting tonight. Either Anthony Rizzo or Rhys Hoskins can be used in cash games because of the matchup and game environment. With that being said, both are expensive and I prefer to shift to Freddie Freeman. Freeman’s hitting for a .385 average with a .538 slugging percentage and a 1.017 OPS over his last 10 games. He also gets an elite option against Chase De Jong, which could go slightly overlooked with the wind blowing out in Chicago. As always, Shohei Ohtani is an elite option, even at his price tag. I prefer him in GPPs, though. Nate Lowe gets a great matchup against Wily Peralta tonight, and he enters this game with .014 wOBA and .061 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. Other options at first base include Carlos Santana, Patrick Wisdom, Ryan O’Hearn, and Phil Gosselin.
Second Base
Second base is another simple position tonight. Similar to Realmuto, Jean Segura is grossly mispriced for this game. He’s been playing at an elite level, recording a .372 average with 4 extra-base hits and 8 RBIs over his last 10 games. More importantly, he’s hitting second in the Philadelphia Phillies lineup tonight. The only other route to consider at this point is spending up for an elite player. Whit Merrifield and Ozzie Albies have both been playing at an elite level in recent games. They both boast an elite combination of speed and power. Both players get an elite matchup, as well. Segura is the top option because of the top pitchers, but Merrifield and Albies are elite plays in their own right.
Jonathan India gets an interesting matchup against Mike Minor tonight. Although I think Minor is solid in GPPs, I also think there are a few Cincinnati Reds bats that can find success. India and Kike Hernandez are two elite mid-priced options that could go overlooked because of the players significantly above and below their prices. David Fletcher continues to lead off for the Los Angeles Angels, who I feel are in a great spot tonight. He makes an interesting direct pivot off of Segura on this slate. Jake Cronenworth, Ian Happ, and Nico Hoerner are all solid GPP options, as well.
Third Base
Kris Bryant is the chalk option at third base tonight. He hasn’t been overly successful in recent games, but he owns a .491 wOBA and a .413 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. Bryant gets a plus matchup against Matt Moore in an elite hitting environment. If you aren’t using Bryant, you’re likely looking to save money at this position. Hunter Dozier continues to make a solid cheap option. He’s hitting for a .273 average with 5 extra-base hits and 3 RBIs over his last 10 games. He also gets a plus matchup against Vladimir Gutierrez tonight. Manny Machado is the only other option that can be considered in cash games, although I prefer Bryant. Machado is averaging 11.8 DK points per game over his last 10 games, including 42, 16, and 16 DK points in 3 of his last 4 games.
Yandy Diaz is an interesting tournament option on this slate. He’s surprisingly struggled with power throughout the season, although he gets a great matchup against Logan Allen, who owns a 3.72 HR/9 in 2021. Yoan Moncada, Josh Donaldson, and Austin Riley are all options that can be considered, although Bryant, Machado, and Dozier (in that order) grade out significantly better than anyone else on this slate.
Shortstop
Shortstop is an interesting position in cash games tonight because there’s essentially three ways to go. If you have the salary, Fernando Tatis Jr. continues to play at an elite level. He’s hitting for a .417 average with 8 extra-base hits (4 home runs), 7 RBIs, and 4 stolen bases over his last 10 games, and he’s an elite option tonight. Javier Baez hasn’t been overly successful in recent games, but he gets the best game environment on the slate. He’s expected to hit fourth in the Chicago Cubs lineup, and he’s significantly cheaper than Tatis tonight. If you need a salary relief option, Didi Gregorius is underpriced for this slate. He gets a great matchup against Zach Davies, and brings .036 wOBA and .035 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game. Simply put, he’s too cheap for a plus matchup with great weather.
Wander Franco sticks out as a great tournament option on this slate. He’s a bit more expensive than Baez, who will likely garner most of the ownership in that price range. Franco’s the best prospect in the MLB, and he’s flashed speed and power early in his career. Tim Anderson is another versatile shortstop that will likely go overlooked on this slate. He’s quietly hitting for a .289 average over his last 10 games, although he’s struggled with power over that span. Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson can be considered in GPPs, as well.
Outfield
With a game total of 11 runs, the outfielders for the Philadelphia Phillies and Chicago Cubs will likely be chalky tonight and for good reason. Of the two teams, I prefer the Phillies options, who continue to be underpriced. Bryce Harper is the top play, while Odubel Herrera and Andrew McCutchen are far too cheap for this slate. On the other side, Jake Marisnick makes an interesting option as a salary relief option against a weak left-handed pitcher. Kris Bryant and Ian Happ are the other two projected starters, and they’ve been outlined elsewhere. If you have the salary, Ronald Acuna Jr. makes an elite option in a great matchup tonight. He’s been struggling with a .184 average over his last 10 games, but his combination of speed and power always make him an elite option, as he tends to find some success, even in slumps.
Andrew Benintendi’s found some success in recent games, recording a .216 average with 5 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 7 RBIs over his last 10 games. He’s a better option against right-handed pitching, and he’s a great play on this slate. Eli White’s quietly been heating up for the Texas Rangers, and he’s expected to lead off on this slate. He’s far too cheap for that role against Wily Peralta, and he’s an elite option in all leagues, although you may not need him in cash games. Tommy Pham’s an interesting option that sticks out for a high price tag. He’s cooled off recently, but he can flash power or speed on any given slate. Oddly enough, the majority of outfielders (and there are projected to be plenty) in the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Angels game can be considered on this slate.
Stacks
Cash games are relatively straight forward on this slate. The top stacks in cash are the Chicago Cubs and Philadelphia Phillies. It’s hot in Chicago with winds blowing out around 12 MPH. The game total is set at 11 with each team possessing team totals north of 5 runs. They each have salary relief options throughout their lineups, as well, making it easy to stack them with the high-end pitchers tonight. The other cash stack option is the Atlanta Braves. They boast an elite offense, and they get a great matchup against Chase De Jong. The major issue is their price tags, making it easier to use a couple of their players rather than a full stack, especially in cash games.
There are a few outstanding stacking options in tournaments on this slate. The cash game ownership should be fairly condensed with a clear game to attack, similar to a Coors slate. The Kansas City Royals offense hasn’t been overly successful in recent games, although they get an elite matchup against Vladimir Gutierrez on this slate. The Royals are a significantly better offense at home, though, and they were recently on a road stint. The Texas Rangers also get an elite matchup against Wily Peralta and a weak Detroit Tigers bullpen. They’ve finally been heating up as an offense, and boast plenty of upside throughout their lineup. Oddly enough, the Chicago White Sox continue to go overlooked because of injuries, but they’ve been one of the hotter offenses in the MLB in recent games, and they can be used in GPPs tonight. The Los Angeles Angels, Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays, and Detroit Tigers can be considered on this slate, as well.
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