Welcome to another edition of Bales’ MLB Game Theory. In this article, I will outline my favorite plays and game theory thoughts for this MLB slate. You can find all of Karma staff’s cores through our MLB Premium Package. Without further ado, here’s our MLB Game Theory article!
| Pitcher | 1B/C | 2B | 3B | SS | OF |
| deGrom | Castro | Cronenworth | Machado | Tatis | Padres |
| Burnes | Goldschmidt | Altuve | Castro | DeJong | Cardinals |
| Anderson | Hiura | India | McMahon | Correa | Astros |
| Kelly | Pujols | Taylor | Turner | Crawford | Yelich |
| Corbin | Freeman | Albies | Hayes | Rosario | Acuna |
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*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3-max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your MLB lineups.
MLB is arguably the most volatile of the major sports in DFS. That gives us a massive edge to focus on in tournaments. It allows us to avoid the chalk, make elite pivots, and find success in GPPs. In this article, I’ll be focusing heavily on the game theory of what I’m looking at for tonight. Keep in mind, I’ll also be outlining cash options at each position.
Pitchers
We have a smaller slate tonight that has a very clear way to go at pitcher in cash games. Jacob deGrom is throwing at the highest level possible, recording a 1.79 xFIP with an elite 44.5% strikeout rate through 13 starts. He isn’t going to come cheap, but he’s a must-start on this slate. Corbin Burnes is another elite-level pitcher on this slate. He owns a 2.01 xFIP with a 38.9% strikeout rate through 13 starts. Oddly enough, Burnes is over $2k cheaper than deGrom even in an elite matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates. It’s clear that you’ll want to use this duo in cash games, although Ian Anderson is a reasonable option if you’re looking to spend down at SP2.
Quite frankly, deGrom and Burnes is the optimal pairing in tournaments, as well. Merrill Kelly’s struggled this season, although he due for position regression. Overall, he boasts a 3.98 xFIP through 16 starts. He only owns a 21.2% strikeout rate, although he doesn’t need an elite game for his price tag. On the other side, Johnny Cueto is a reasonable salary relief option in GPPs, as well. He’s struggled with strikeouts at times this season, though, making him a risky option with Anderson and Kelly available. If you’re spending up in tournaments, Framber Valdez makes an interesting option. He owns a 3.06 xFIP with a 22.6% strikeout rate through 6 starts. More importantly, he’s positioned between deGrom and Burnes, who are clearly superior options on this slate. It will keep Valdez’s ownership low, and he comes with 30+ DK point upside.
Catcher/First Base
If you’re spending up at both pitcher spots, you’re going to have to save money elsewhere. Jason Castro is the clear-cut top punt option. He enters this game with .074 wOBA and .079 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. Yadier Molina is a bit too cheap for a matchup in Coors against a pitcher that struggles with strikeouts. If you aren’t punting the position, he’s the top option. Buster Posey, Omar Narvaez, Will Smith, and Tyler Stephenson can all be considered in GPPs, although they’re a tier below Castro and Molina.
Paul Goldschmidt is a bit underpriced for his matchup in Coors tonight. He’s hitting for a .250 average with somewhat of limited power over his last 10 games. With that being said, he gets an elite matchup against Antonio Senzatela and a weak Colorado bullpen. Keston Hiura and Albert Pujols are two more cheap options that will allow you to spend on elite pitching. Hiura’s been heating up in recent games, while Pujols has found success against left-handed pitching this season. Yuli Gurriel, C.J. Cron, and LaMonte Wade can all be used for varying price tags, as well.
Second Base
Second base is a position to spend up at tonight. Jake Cronenworth makes the top option, as he’s still a bit underpriced. Over his last 10 games, he’s hitting for a .351 average with 8 extra-base hits (5 home runs) and 12 RBIs. He’ll benefit from playing in a hitter-friendly stadium tonight. Jose Altuve is another high-priced option that can be considered. He’s cooled off in recent games, but he’s leading off for one of the top offenses in the MLB, and he comes with a tremendous combination of speed and power.
Jonathan India could see some ownership tonight, as he gets a plus matchup against Ryan Weathers. He’s struggled a bit with power in recent games, but he’s a player that can boast upside through his speed, as well. Chris Taylor is a few hundred cheaper, though. He gets a plus matchup against Patrick Corbin, and he enters this game with .052 wOBA and .143 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching. Max Muncy, Tommy Edman, Brendan Rodgers, and Kolten Wong are all expensive options that can be used at this position tonight. If you’re looking for salary relief, Josh Harrison and Josh Rojas are reasonable options.
Third Base
There are a few ways to go at third base tonight. Manny Machado’s posted a .333 average with 3 extra-base hits (2 home runs), 9 RBIs, and 2 stolen bases over his last 10 games. He’s an outstanding option tonight. Other high-priced options for cash games include Nolan Arenado and Ryan McMahon. You can also save salary at this position. Starlin Castro’s caught fire in recent games, recording a .351 average with a .541 slugging percentage and a .955 OPS over his last 10 games. He’s far too cheap for this slate, making him an elite salary relief option, especially in cash games.
Justin Turner is an elite tournament option on this slate. He’s quietly playing well, posting a .351 average over his last 10 games, although he’s struggled with power. He’ll benefit from a plus matchup against Patrick Corbin in a high upside Los Angeles Dodgers offense. Luis Urias is another high-priced option that can be considered in tournaments on this slate. Josh Fuentes and Abraham Toro are cheap ways to get pieces in two of the top projected offenses on this slate.
Shortstop
Trevor Story is always an elite option in Colorado, but Fernando Tatis Jr. is the priority spend-up at this position. The San Diego star is hitting for a .424 average with 7 extra-base hits (4 home runs), 7 RBIs, and 3 stolen bases over his last 10 games. If you aren’t spending up on Tatis in cash games, you’re likely looking to save salary with Paul DeJong here. He’s been slightly better against right-handed pitching this season, recording .019 wOBA and .013 ISO differentials against righties. DeJong’s struggled throughout the season, but he’s far too cheap on this slate.
Carlos Correa’s cooled off a bit in recent games, although he’s still playing at an elite level. Over his last 10 games, he owns a .324 average with a .559 slugging percentage and a 1.013 OPS. Brandon Crawford and Willy Adames are slightly cheaper, but both come with plenty of upside. As always, Trea Turner and Francisco Lindor can be considered as higher-priced options. If you’re looking to save salary in GPPs, Kyle Farmer is a bit too cheap for his matchup against Weathers.
Outfield
There are several entire outfields that can be used on this slate. The San Diego Padres outfield is surprisingly cheap on this slate. Tommy Pham and Trent Grisham are the top options, as they’re averaging 12.2 and 8.9 DK points per game over their last 10 games, respectively. Wil Myers has also found success recently, and he can be used, as well. If you need salary relief options, Dylan Carlson, Tyler O’Neill, and Harrison Bader are all far too cheap for playing in Coors tonight. Yordan Alvarez won’t come cheap for the Houston Astros, but he’s a player that can be considered in all leagues. Michael Brantley and Kyle Tucker are far too cheap for their recent success, while Myles Straw is a bit riskier but has been playing well enough for all leagues. Furthermore, Charlie Blackmon, Raimel Tapia, and Yonathan Daza can all be used in cash games. If you’re looking for the top one-off, Mookie Betts makes a great play.
Everyone listed above can be considered in tournaments because of the size of this slate. Christian Yelich and Avisail Garcia get a great matchup against Wil Crowe, and they can both be used in GPPs tonight. Cody Bellinger could go overlooked because of the lefty/lefty matchup, but he’s far too cheap to not consider, as he’s played well since returning from injury. It’s also impossible not to mention Kyle Schwarber, who’s hitting for a .341 average with 10 home runs and 15 RBIs over his last 10 games. He isn’t a cheap option anymore, though, and you’ll have to pay a premium for his recent hot streak.
Stacks
There are several ways you can go in terms of stacks in cash games tonight. The St. Louis Cardinals stick out the most at the moment. They feature the highest implied team total on the slate, but their price tags will make it easier to fit deGrom/Burnes at pitcher. On the other side of that game, the Colorado Rockies can also be used in all leagues, as they have a few great salary relief options, as well. The third stack in cash games that I’d consider is the Houston Astros. They’re in an odd spot tonight, as they sit well below other offenses with their implied team total. With that being said, they boast plenty of upside as an offense, and they feature several players that are currently listed too cheap.
With the majority of the ownership likely falling to the Coors game, the Los Angeles Dodgers are in a great spot to go overlooked. They get a plus matchup against Patrick Corbin, who is due for positive regression but is far from a pitcher I’m looking to avoid. The Milwaukee Brewers are also in a great spot, as Wil Crowe enters this game with a 4.92 xFIP and a 2.17 HR/9 through 11 games (10 starts). The Cincinnati Reds are another GPP stack to consider on this slate.
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