Welcome to another edition of Bales’ MLB Game Theory. In this article, I will outline my favorite plays and game theory thoughts for this MLB slate. You can find all of Karma staff’s cores through our MLB Premium Package. Without further ado, here’s our MLB Game Theory article!
| Pitcher | 1B/C | 2B | 3B | SS | OF |
| Berrios | Vogelbach | Peterson | Ramirez | Adames | Brewers |
| Cobb | Narvaez | Albies | Urias | Walls | Angels |
| Burnes | Freeman | Semien | Riley | Tatis | Acuna |
| Cueto | Guerrero | Taylor | Turner | Bichette | Grichuk |
| Rodon | Schoop | Escobar | Wendle | Kiner-Falefa | Rangers |
Tilt your mobile device on its side for optimal viewing
*If you don’t already play 3 lineups and 3-max entry contests daily, try using the teams provided in the stacks above to maximize upside and correlation in your MLB lineups.
MLB is arguably the most volatile of the major sports in DFS. That gives us a massive edge to focus on in tournaments. It allows us to avoid the chalk, make elite pivots, and find success in GPPs. In this article, I’ll be focusing heavily on the game theory of what I’m looking at for tonight. Keep in mind, I’ll also be outlining cash options at each position.
Pitchers
There are several cash options on this slate. Corbin Burnes is a Cy Young candidate and could be the highest owned option. He boasts upside through an absurd 41.5% strikeout rate, although he’ll be playing in Coors. Instead, I prefer the underpriced pairing of Jose Berrios and Alex Cobb. Berrios and Cobb boast 3.40 and 2.67 xFIPs, respectively. The latter continues to be one of the most underrated starters in the MLB. They also both get plus strikeout matchups. Most importantly, the Milwaukee Brewers are cheap enough to easily fit in cash games with two $8k pitchers. Depending on your build, Robbie Ray, Yusei Kikuchi, and Chris Paddack can be considered in cash games, although their a tier believe the other three outlined above.
Johnny Cueto’s seen mixed results his season, posting a 4.15 xFIP thus far. He only owns an 18.2% strikeout rate, but there are plenty of strikeouts in the Philadelphia Phillies lineup, adding to his upside. Trevor Bauer’s an expensive option on this slate. He hasn’t been as dominant this season, posting a 3.66 xFIP through 14 starts. With that being said, his 31.6% strikeout rate and matchup against Arizona make him a viable tournament option tonight. J.C. Mejia’s struggled since becoming a starter (4.76 xFIP, 18.2% strikeout rate), but he gets an interesting matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates. He’s extremely cheap and boasts upside, although he ranks well behind the eight pitchers listed before him, even in tournaments. This slate doesn’t feel as if one or two pitchers will dominate ownership, meaning there may not be a massive advantage to avoiding the “chalk” at this position.
Catcher/First Base
Catchers a relatively simple position tonight. In cash games, you’re locking in Omar Narvaez and moving on. He’s hitting fifth in the Milwaukee lineup, and he gets a matchup against Antonio Senzatela, who lacks strikeout potential. If you need a punt option in cash games, Dom Nunez can be considered, although his matchup against Corbin Burnes is less than ideal. Riley Adams, Martin Maldonado, and Victor Caratini are all punt options under $3k tonight. Gary Sanchez caught fire in recent games, and he’s a solid spend-up option, hitting .308 with 6 extra-base hits (4 home runs) and 9 RBIs over his last 10 games. Yan Gomes is another expensive option, entering this game with .152 wOBA and .094 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching this season. Will Smith, Max Stassi, and Yadier Molina are a few more GPP options for varying price tags.
There are three cash options at first base tonight. Dan Vogelbach, Freddie Freeman, and Shohei Ohtani can all be used in all leagues. Each gets a plus matchup and does their best work against right-handed pitching. Vlad Guerrero is a direct pivot off of Freeman/Ohtani, as he’s only slightly more expensive. He boasts a .389 average with a .750 slugging percentage and a 1.238 OPS over his last 10 games. Although he boasts the same, if not more, upside than the trio above, he won’t see nearly the same ownership. Jared Walsh, LaMonte Wade, and Albert Pujols are more tournament plays for differing prices tonight.
Second Base
Second base is interesting tonight because it depends on the status of Kolten Wong. If he’s starting and leading off, he’s a great option. Assuming he’s out, Jace Peterson will likely start for Milwaukee. He’s been struggling, but he’ll be a cheap way to get a piece of the Brewers’ offense. Ozzie Albies continues to be underpriced, averaging over 10 DK points per game in Atlanta. He also gets a plus matchup against Carlos Martinez and his 2021 struggles. Marcus Semien’s leading off for one of the best offenses in the MLB, boasts more power against left-handed pitching, and gets an elite matchup Bruce Zimmermann, who’s struggled with home runs throughout his MLB career. Semien may be best suited for tournaments, as you’ll likely use this position to save some money.
Chris Taylor enters this game with .052 wOBA and .168 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching this season. Although he’s struggling at the plate, Taylor’s hitting near the top of the Los Angeles Dodgers lineup, and he gets a plus matchup against Caleb Smith. DJ LeMahieu and Jorge Polanco are two higher-priced options that can be considered in tournaments tonight. If you’re looking to spend down at this position, Josh Harrison and Rougned Odor own positive wOBA and ISO splits against their opposing pitchers’ handedness tonight. Harrison’s also hitting .333 over his last 10 games, although he’s struggled with power.
Third Base
The Kolten Wong trickle effect happens at third base tonight, as well. If Wong’s out, Luis Urias will likely be leading off, making him a great option in cash games. Jose Ramirez may end up being the chalkiest option at this position, though. He’s hitting for a .325 average with 6 extra-base hits (3 home runs) and 13 RBIs over his last 10 games. The Cleveland Indians are on an incredible run, and Ramirez is a massive part of that. Assuming Wong is in the lineup and Urias is hitting late, Austin Riley is a similar priced option that could garner ownership. He’s been better in Atlanta and allows you to get part of one of the top stacks tonight.
Justin Turner offers a direct pivot off of Ramirez, as he’s only $300 cheaper. He’s been heating up in recent games, posting a .289 average with a .579 slugging percentage and a .965 OPS over his last 10 games. Turner owns .016 wOBA and .108 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching this season. Assuming he’s in the lineup, Anthony Rendon, along with Gio Urshela and Jonathan Villar, are direct pivots off of Urias and Riley. Manny Machado, Santiago Espinal, and Jordy Mercer are all interesting tournament options for their prices on this slate.
Shortstop
There are three cash options at shortstop, depending on the price point you want to spend. Fernando Tatis Jr. continues to dominate, posting double-digit DK points in 5 of his last 6 games. He’s the most expensive option on the slate but for good reason. Willy Adames is significantly cheaper, and he gets you a piece of the Coors game. He’s been struggling, but anyone on this Milwaukee offense can be considered in this matchup. Finally, if you really need to save salary, Taylor Walls is a great option. He’s seen mixed results through 24 games, but he boasts upside with his speed. Wall will hit lower in the Tampa Bay Rays order, but he’s an elite salary relief play on this slate.
Bo Bichette is playing at an elite level, posting a .395 average with 5 extra-base hits (3 home runs), 9 RBIs, and 2 stolen bases over his last 10 games. He’s a direct pivot off of Tatis. The mid-price range at shortstop is loaded with options that can be used instead of Adames tonight. Tim Anderson, Carlos Correa, Gleyber Torres (GTD), and Francisco Lindor are all far too cheap for their talent. Jazz Chisholm Jr. can be added to that list, as well. Anderson and Correa are the most interesting, as they’re two of the hottest hitters in the MLB, averaging 10.1 and 11.5 DK points per game over their last 10 games, respectively. Their prices dipped because of tough matchups, making them elite tournament options. Other GPP options at this position include Amed Rosario, Dansby Swanson, Brandon Crawford, Freddy Galvis, and Jose Iglesias.
Outfield
Two teams are likely to feature the chalk options at outfield tonight. The Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Angels. Christian Yelich, Avisail Garcia, Justin Upton, and Shohei Ohtani are all great options for their respective price tags. Ronald Acuna Jr. is the most expensive option at the position, posting a .342 average with 7 extra-base hits (1 home run), 8 RBIs, and 3 stolen bases over his last 10 games. Keep in mind, these aren’t the only options that can be used in cash, although they are the top plays.
Randal Grichuk is a dominant option against left-handed pitching, bringing .082 wOBA and .101 ISO differentials against lefties this season. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is another great option for the Toronto Blue Jays. There are several elite plays at this position, which is the case on most large slates. Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Mookie Betts outline some of the more expensive options that can be used. In the mid-tier, Trent Grisham, AJ Pollock, and Trevor Larnach stick out. For salary relief, you can consider Abraham Almonte Jr., Steven Souza, and Taylor Ward.
Stacks
The most obvious stack on the slate is the Milwaukee Brewers, who enter this game with an implied team total north of 6 runs and boast reasonable price tags. They get an elite matchup, and it won’t be difficult to fit them in with most cash pitchers tonight. The Atlanta Braves also will seemingly garner ownership, specifically the top of their order. They have a couple of high-priced options (Acuna/Freeman), although they also boast an elite salary relief play (Almonte) and a pair of solid mid-priced players (Albies/Riley).
The most intriguing tournament stack at the moment is the Toronto Blue Jays because of their price tags. It’s unlikely their players garner a ton of ownership because they’re too expensive and you’ll have to save money somewhere. They get an elite matchup against a home run pitcher in a hitter-friendly stadium, though. The Minnesota Twins also stick out. Mike Foltynewicz has struggled with a 5.08 xFIP, a 2.09 HR/9, and a 15.7% strikeout rate. The Twins have consistently burned fantasy owners as an offense this season, but they’re in an elite spot once again. Other GPP stacks to consider include the Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angeles Angels, Cleveland Indians, New York Mets, and San Francisco Giants.
Follow Bales on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
