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Over Under 2/2 – Washington Nationals/Philadelphia Phillies with Strikeouts
The Washington Nationals lineup is dealing with multiple injuries, and simply isn’t the elite lineup that we know they can produce. Instead, they rank second on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking last in team wOBA. Zach Eflin has been far from a dominant strikeout pitcher, posting 18.1% strikeout and 9.8% swinging strike rates through six games. He has also only recorded 6+ strikeouts in one game this season, which was against a healthy Washington team. With that being said, he should see positive strikeout regression in Philadelphia, where he owns a 13.8% strikeout rate this season, but a 19.6% strikeout rate in his career. Anibal Sanchez is a pitcher that I simply don’t trust. He owns a 17.8% strikeout rate to go along with a 9.6% swinging strike rate in 2019. He has only thrown more than 5.2 innings once, though, while giving up three or more earned runs in five of his six starts. I don’t expect Sanchez to throw deep into this game, and he will struggle to find five strikeouts if that’s the case. The Philadelphia Phillies rank as an average team on this slate in strikeouts per at-bat, but they also rank as above average in team wOBA.
Play $50 on Zach Eflin OVER 5.5 strikeouts and Anibal Sanchez UNDER 4.5 strikeouts to win $124 (2.48x)
Over Under 2/2 – Oakland A’s/Pittsburgh Pirates
Jordan Lyles has to see strikeout regression at some point this season, as his 25.5% strikeout rate simply doesn’t match his 8.8% swinging strike rate. With that being said, I’m not entire sure this game will be that game. The Oakland A’s lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat by a relatively wide margin, while also ranking third last in team wOBA. Lyles has posted 5+ strikeouts in three of his last four starts, and he owns 24 total strikeouts over that span. If he can find 5+ innings in this game, he should also be able to hit the over in this total against Oakland. Frankie Montas enters this game with a 21% strikeout rate to go along with a 10.1% swinging strike rate. That doesn’t tell the whole story, though, as his strikeout rate drops from 24.7% at home to only 17.1% on the road. He also gets a matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who rank fourth last on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. This total isn’t exactly high for Montas, but a tough matchup on the road should limit his strikeout potential.
Play $50 on Jordan Lyles OVER 4.5 strikeouts and Frankie Montas UNDER 4.5 strikeouts to win $126 (2.52x)
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