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Total Base Race – Chicago Cubs/Cincinnati Reds
I’m a bit 50/50 on the matchup the Chicago Cubs get against Alex Wood, but I’m siding with Vegas on this play. Through only two starts this season, Wood owns a 4.60 xFIP and a 4.76 SIERA. He has also struggled with 42.4% fly ball and 21.4% HR/FB rates in those games. Wood has held right-handed batters to a .200 average with a .433 slugging percentage and a .284 wOBA. Historically, though, he has struggled more against right-handed batters. Furthermore, he owns a 5.26 xFIP against righties in 2019, while that number drops to only 2.44 against lefties this season. Nicholas Castellanos has found plenty of success recently, posting a .294 average with a .537 slugging percentage and a .846 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts eight extra-base hits (one home run) over that span, as well. Castellanos has also posted 48% hard hit and 29% fly ball rates with a 92 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. As if that isn’t enough, he brings 0.064 wOBA and 0.01 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching into this game. Javier Baez has also found significantly more success against lefties, as he enters this game with 0.083 wOBA and 0.085 ISO differentials against them. He has also been playing at a high level recently, as he possesses a .389 average with a .778 slugging percentage and a 1.214 OPS over his last 10 games. He has recorded seven extra-base hits (three home runs) in those games, as well. Surprisingly, Baez only owns 26% hard hit and 31% fly ball rates with a 92 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Cole Hamels will be taking the mound for Chicago tonight, and he has thrown well with a 4.02 xFIP and a 4.27 SIERA this season. He has allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .228 average with a .363 slugging percentage and a .284 wOBA in 2019. Eugenio Suarez is a player that has been more consistent against lefties, as he enters this game with a 0.019 wOBA differential against left-handed pitching. He’s also hitting .278 with a .444 slugging percentage and a .840 OPS over his last 10 games. He has posted two home runs in those games, as well. Suarez also owns 30% hard hit and 46% fly ball rates with a 91 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. While the pitching matchup is tough, the total is set at 9.5 runs, suggesting each offense should find some success in this game.
Play $50 on Nicholas Castellanos, Javier Baez, and Eugenio Suarez OVER 8.5 total bases to win $100 (2x)
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