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Total Base Race – Kansas City Royals/Minnesota Twins
The Minnesota Twins get a matchup against Brad Keller, who has struggled with a 4.88 xFIP and a 5.19 SIERA this season. He has held his opponents to a 27% fly ball rate, while giving up an 11.2% HR/FB rate. He has also allowed them to post a 37.1% hard hit rate to go along with a 14.8% soft hit rate in 2019. Keller has allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .247 average with a .407 slugging percentage and a .307 wOBA, while left-handed batters have posted a .248/.370/.313 line against him. He has also given up a .272/.413/.333 line on the road this season. Max Kepler has been playing at a high level recently, posting a .314 average with a .857 slugging percentage and a 1.299 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts nine extra-base hits (five home runs) over that span, as well. Over the last 15 days, he owns 43% hard hit and 45% fly ball rates to go along with a 94 MPH exit velocity. Kepler also brings 0.048 wOBA and 0.096 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game. Nelson Cruz has been a better option against left-handed pitching, but he has been playing too well to ignore. He’s hitting .486 with a 1.429 slugging percentage and a 1.990 OPS over his last 10 games. He possesses 13 extra-base hits (10 home runs) in those games, as well. Furthermore, Cruz has posted 52% hard hit and 61% fly ball rates with a 98 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Jake Odorizzi is an interesting pitcher, as he has looked elite against right-handed bats this season, holding them to a .174/.311/.247 line. With that being said, he’s due for quite a bit of regression, as his xFIP against right-handed batters is slightly higher than against lefties. Hunter Dozier is a reverse splits hitter, bringing 0.037 wOBA and 0.096 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game. He’s only hitting .220 with a .463 slugging percentage and a .768 OPS over his last 10 games, though. In those games, he owns four extra-base hits (three home runs). With that being said, Dozier also boasts 51% hard hit and 58% fly ball rates to go along with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days, suggesting he could be in line for a breakout sooner rather than later.
Play $50 on Max Kepler, Nelson Cruz, and Hunter Dozier OVER 6.5 total bases to win $100 (2x)
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