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Total Base Race – San Francisco Giants/Colorado Rockies
The total base (TB) prop in this game is set at only 6.5 TB, but normally Coors games are set at 8.5. That’s the total that I would feel comfortable playing up till. The Colorado Rockies get a great matchup against Shaun Anderson, who brings a 4.66 xFIP and a 5.16 SIERA into this game. He has struggled against both left- and right-handed batters in 2019. He’s currently allowed lefties to hit for a .281 average with a .504 slugging percentage and a .354 wOBA, while righties have posted a .292/.429/.331 line against him. Charlie Blackmon has looked elite recently, posting a .368 average with a .553 slugging percentage and a .967 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns five extra-base hits (one home run) in those games. Surprisingly, Blackmon only owns 34% hard hit and 31% line drive rates with a 92 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He’ll benefit greatly from playing in Coors, though, and he brings 0.022 wOBA and 0.007 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game. Trevor Story has been slightly better against left-handed pitching in 2019, but his numbers against right-handed pitching are nothing to scoff at. Over the last 15 days, he owns 31% hard hit and 44% fly ball rates with a 90 MPH exit velocity. He has also been relatively cold over his last 10 games, but he has flashed upside, posting six extra-base hits in those games. Most importantly, Story is hitting .297 with a .621 slugging percentage and a .982 OPS through 48 home games in 2019. He owns 31 extra-base hits (14 home runs) in those games. Peter Lambert will be taking the mound for the Colorado Rockies tonight, and he brings a 4.21 xFIP and a 4.52 SIERA into this game. In limited innings, he has allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .340 average with a .723 slugging percentage and a .433 wOBA in Colorado. Brandon Belt is expected to lead off for the San Francisco Giants, and he owns 0.04 wOBA and 0.021 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. He has also been struggling a bit recently, but he’s still playing in the most hitter friendly stadium in the MLB tonight. Two bad pitchers will be taking the mound, and this total is set entirely too low. Get it in before in moves up, as it’s likely to hit 8.5 TB at some point today.
Play $50 on Charlie Blackmon, Trevor Story, and Brandon Belt OVER 6.5 total bases to win $100 (2x)
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NOTE: Props, players, and contests are subject to change throughout the day. Make sure to get these plays in as soon as possible.
