Total Base Race – Arizona Diamondbacks/Colorado Rockies
Unfortunately, tonight is rather boring with regard to Monkey Knife Fight recommendations. There is only one game that fantasy owners should be targeting because the totals required to win are nearly the same as all other games – the Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies. This game is set at 8.5 totals bases, and it will be a high-scoring affair that should feature multiple home runs. Vegas is expecting this game to score around 14 runs, and the Rockies are slight betting favorites at -115, giving them an implied run total of 7.3 compared to the Diamondbacks at 6.9. Finding batters that have both home run upside and on-base consistency is the key to success. That said, start with Trevor Story. Story is expected to hit second for the Rockies, which means he should see an extra at-bat, and he is leading his team with 0.068 HR/AB. In the last 15 days, he has an average exit velocity on batted balls of 98 MPH, a fly ball rate over 40%, and a hard hit rate over 50%. In his last 10 games, he is hitting over .300 with 4 home runs and 8 RBIs. He has two two-hit games in his last four, and he is hitting significantly better this season at home. The stars are aligned here. Next, move down to Nolan Arenado. If Arenado hit as well as he does in Colorado in all ballparks, he would be challenging Mike Trout for best in the league, but he doesn’t. Fortunately, he is playing in Coors Field tonight where he sports a season-long .354 batting average. In his last 10 games, he is hitting over .300 with 4 home runs and 8 RBIs, just like Story. Arenado is expected to hit fourth, and he has serious home run upside. These two Rockies could hit this over without the help of the final recommendation. Even so, fill out the lineup with Eduardo Escobar. Escobar is a high-upside recommendation, and in Colorado this season, he is hitting .269 with 4 home runs and 13 RBIs in 13 games. He has 4 home runs and 14 RBIs in his last 10 games, and over the last 15 days, his advanced metrics are very solid. His fly ball rate is over 60% to go along with his 52% hard hit rate, and Peter Lambert is known for making mistakes that result in home runs. I’m recommending bettors increase their wager to $100 for tonight’s contest.
Play $100 on Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, and Eduardo Escobar OVER 8.5 total bases to win $200 (2x)
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NOTE: Props, players, and contests are subject to change throughout the day. Make sure to get these plays in as soon as possible.
