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Total Base Race – Miami Marlins/Atlanta Braves
I’m going back to the well with the Atlanta Braves, who have looked elite at home this season. They get a matchup against Jordan Yamamoto, who is due for quite a bit of regression. Through four starts, he owns a 5.12 xFIP and a 4.96 SIERA, suggesting his 2.35 ERA is a bit lucky. He has yet to allow a home run this season, but that isn’t sustainable, as he has struggled with a 49.1% fly ball rate. Yamamoto has also given up a 43.4% hard hit rate to go along with a 28.3% soft hit rate. He has been slightly worse against left-handed batters with a 5.29 xFIP, but he has also allowed a 5.03 xFIP to righties. Ronald Acuna Jr. continues to play at a high level, posting a .333 average with a .538 slugging percentage and a .961 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns four extra-base hits (two home runs) in those games, as well. Acuna also owns 48% hard hit and 35% fly ball rates with a 93 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has been better against left-handed pitching, but his numbers against righties are still more than impressive. Ozzie Albies has also been better against left-handed pitching, but that may not matter tonight. He’s hitting .286 with a .600 slugging percentage and a .959 OPS over his last 10 games. He boasts five extra-base hits (three home runs) over that span, as well. Furthermore, Albies enters this game with 43% hard hit and 40% fly ball rates with a 93 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Freddie Freeman has cooled off a bit recently, but he’s still hitting .262 with a .476 slugging percentage and a .787 OPS over his last 10 games. He has also recorded five extra-base hits (two home runs) in those games. Freeman brings 42% hard hit and 39% fly ball rates with a 93 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days into this game, as well. He has been at his against right-handed pitching, as well, posting 0.05 wOBA and 0.026 ISO differentials against righties. These are the first three batters in the Atlanta lineup, and I expect them to find plenty of success.
Play $50 on Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies, and Freddie Freeman OVER 7.5 total bases to win $100 (2x)
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