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Total Base Race – Philadelphia Phillies/Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves have found tremendous success at home this season, and they get a plus matchup against Zach Eflin tonight. Eflin is due for quite a bit of regression, as his 3.34 ERA is significantly lower than his 4.74 xFIP and his 4.64 SIERA. He has also allowed a 39% fly ball rate to go along with a 13% HR/FB rate in 2019. His hard hit rate sits at 37.4%, while he owns only a 15.6% soft hit rate. Eflin has been at his worst against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .255 average with a .503 slugging percentage and a .334 wOBA. He has also given up a .265/.450/.323 line to his opponents on the road this season. Ronald Acuna Jr. has been playing at a high level recently for Atlanta, as he’s hitting .325 with a .600 slugging percentage and a 1.000 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns five extra-base hits (three home runs) over that span, as well. Furthermore, Acuna boasts 41% hard hit and 35% fly ball rates with a 92 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has been better against left-handed pitching, but his numbers against righties are nothing to worry about. Dansby Swanson has also been playing well recently, posting a .316 average with a .500 slugging percentage and a .850 OPS. He owns five extra-base hits (one home run) in those contests, as well. Swanson also enters this game with 33% hard hit and fly ball rates to go along with a 93 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has been a better option against right-handed pitching, as he boasts 0.002 wOBA and 0.046 ISO differentials against righties. Freddie Freeman has also found success against righties, entering this game with 0.042 wOBA and 0.017 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. He has cooled down a bit recently, hitting only .238 with a .381 slugging percentage and a .670 OPS over his last 10 games. In those contests, he owns four extra-base hits (one home run). He does possess 39% hard hit and 44% fly ball rates with a 93 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days, though, and this is a matchup he can take advantage of. The Braves implied run total sits at 5.9 runs tonight, and generally that high of a total causes the total bases prop to start at 8.5. That isn’t the case tonight, and we can take advantage of that.
Play $50 on Ronald Acuna Jr., Dansby Swanson, and Freddie Freeman OVER 6.5 total bases to win $100 (2x)
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NOTE: Props, players, and contests are subject to change throughout the day. Make sure to get these plays in as soon as possible.
