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Total Base Race – Toronto Blue Jays/Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox get a great matchup against Trent Thornton tonight. He has struggled through 19 starts with a 4.73 xFIP and a 4.75 SIERA. He has also posted 39% fly ball and 13% HR/FB rates in those games, as well. Furthermore, Thornton has allowed his opponents to post a 36.2% hard hit rate, while recording a 19% soft hit rate. He has struggled more against left-handed batters allowing them to hit for a .262 average with a .497 slugging percentage and a .346 wOBA. He has also allowed righties to post a .267/.390/.318 line this season. Mookie Betts has been playing at an elite level recently, posting a .385 average with a .564 slugging percentage and a 1.033 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns six extra-base hits over that span, as well. He has also recorded 55% hard hit and 33% fly ball rates to go along with a 96 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Betts owns .045 wOBA and .1 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. Rafael Devers is another player that has been at his best against right-handed pitching, posting .067 wOBA and .102 ISO differentials against righties. He has been on fire over his last 10 games, as well, posting a .333 average with a .714 slugging percentage and a 1.131 OPS over that span. He has recorded six extra-base hits (five home runs) in those games. Devers enters this game with 38% hard hit and 41% fly ball rates to go along with a 93 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. Xander Bogaerts is the final piece of the puzzle, and he has recorded a .325 average with a .750 slugging percentage and a 1.136 OPS over his last 10 games. He has posted seven extra-base hits (five home runs) over that span. Bogaerts has also recorded 38% hard hit and 42% fly ball rates with a 93 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has been significantly better against left-handed pitching, but I’m not overly concerned in this matchup. These three players are expected to hit first through third in the Red Sox lineup, and they come with elite potential at home against a weak pitcher. This total is set at bit low for their Vegas total, as well.
Play $50 on Mookie Betts, Rafael Devers, and Xander Bogaerts OVER 7.5 total bases to win $100 (2x)
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