If you’re interested in getting all of our Monkey Knife Fight plays, sign up for our Discord Chat! Use Promo Code “STRIKEOUT” to get 10% off of ANY of our packages for the lifetime of that subscription.
Total Base Race – Miami Marlins/Milwaukee Brewers
The Milwaukee Brewers get an elite matchup against Sandy Alcantara tonight. He has struggled through 11 starts, recording a 2-5 record with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. He also owns a 5.32 xFIP and a 5.67 SIERA, suggesting he could see more regression as he throws more innings. Alcantara has held his opponents to 32.3% fly ball and 9.7% HR/FB rates this season, which is the biggest concern for this play, but not enough to pull me off of it. He has also allowed a 29.3% hard hit rate, while recording a 23.2% soft hit rate this season. Alcantara has also struggled with a 15% strikeout rate, although he owns an 11.6% swinging strike rate. He has struggled against left-handed batters this eason, allowing them to hit for a .250 average with a .393 slugging percentage and a .323 wOBA. He has also allowed his opponents to post a .277/.457/.375 line on the road in 2019. Ben Gamel is leading off for the Brewers. He is only hitting .161 over his last 10 games, but four of his five hits have gone for extra-bases, including a pair of home runs. He’s also hitting .282 with a .408 slugging percentage and a .779 OPS through 27 home games this season. Furthermore, Gamel has posted 52% hard hit and 28% fly ball rates with a 93 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He also enters this game with a 0.056 ISO differential against right-handed pitching. Christian Yelich is another player that has been an elite hitter in Milwaukee. Through 23 home games, he’s hitting .410 with a 1.090 slugging percentage and a 1.610 OPS. He owns 19 extra-base hits (17 home runs) in those games. Yelich has posted 48% hard hit and 42% fly ball rates with a 95 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He also owns 0.033 wOBA and 0.062 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. The final dominant left-handed bat in this play is Mike Moustakas, who is hitting .317 with a .732 slugging percentage and a 1.095 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he owns seven extra-base hits (five home runs). He has posted 50% hard hit and 46% fly ball rates with a 95 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. These three players are hitting near the top of the Milwaukee offense, and they should find plenty of success in this matchup.
Play $50 on Ben Gamel, Christian Yelich, and Mike Moustakas OVER 6.5 total bases to win $100 (2x)
Follow Justin on Twitter (@BalesSJustin)
See more MLB action at main Baseball page.
NOTE: Props, players, and contests are subject to change throughout the day. Make sure to get these plays in as soon as possible.
