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Total Base Race – Colorado Rockies/Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs get an elite matchup against Jeff Hoffman, who has struggled in limited starts this season. He enters this game with a 1-1 record, 7.20 ERA, and 1.60 WHIP through three starts. He has also posted a 4.11 xFIP and a 4.23 SIERA in 2019. Hoffman has also allowed 37% fly ball and 17.6% HR/FB rates this season. Surprisingly, he has held his opponents to a 31.3% hard hit rate, although he only owns a 12.5% soft hit rate. He’s likely to struggle in Wrigley Field tonight, though, as the wind is blowing out around 10 MPH. The Cubs are also -224 favorites in a game set at 10.5 runs, and they possess an implied run total of 6.4 runs. This implied run total suggests they’ll find plenty of success in this matchup. I’m taking a chance on the Cubs tonight, who has looked outstanding at home this season. Kris Bryant has seen mixed results recently, but he owns a .319 average with a .617 slugging percentage and a 1.088 OPS at home this season. He has also posted 15 extra-base hits (6 home runs) through 28 home games. Bryant has posted 42% hard hit and 36% fly ball rates with a 91 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. Javier Baez is in an identical position as Bryant. He has struggled at times recently, but has still posted a .321 average with a .615 slugging percentage and a .974 OPS through 28 home games. In those games, he has posted 19 extra-base hits (6 home runs). Baez could be in line for breakout, as well, as he has posted 47% hard hit and 26% fly ball rates with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Anthony Rizzo is the final piece of the puzzle, and he’s the only playing entering this game on fire. Over his last 10 games, he has posted a .333 average with a .611 slugging percentage and a 1.040 OPS. Similarly to the others, though, he has found plenty of success at home, where he owns a .327/.635/1.066 line this season. Rizzo also boasts 15 extra-base hits (8 home runs) through 28 home games. He has been at his best against right-handed pitching, as well, posting 0.112 wOBA and 0.138 ISO differentials against righties. Each of these three players come with power, and they will see extra at-bats if Chicago finds success tonight. This total bases total is a bit low for the wind blowing out in a plus matchup in Wrigley tonight.
Play $50 on Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Javier Baez OVER 6.5 total bases to win $100 (2x)
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