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Total Base Race – Atlanta Braves/Washington Nationals
Joe Ross was expected to draw the start today, but instead it will be Austin Voth taking the mound for the Washington Nationals. He hasn’t thrown in the MLB since 2018, but he has had an unsuccessful stint in the Triple-A in 2019. Through 12 starts in the minors this season, Voth owns a 4.46 xFIP. He has also allowed 37.1% fly ball and 10.6% HR/FB rates in those starts, although both numbers increased in his limited MLB innings last season. He has posted a 25.4% strikeout rate in Triple-A in 2019, but there’s very little reason to believe he’ll bring that rate into the MLB. In limited innings in the Majors, Voth has allowed right-handed batters to hit for a .259 average with a .481 slugging percentage and a .351 wOBA. He has also allowed lefties to hit for a .250/.400/.317 line, although the sample size is far too limited to completely trust. Ronald Acuna has cooled down over his last couple of games, but he’s still hitting .326 with a .500 slugging percentage and a .915 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns four extra-base hits (two home runs) in those contests, as well. Acuna has also posted 50% hard hit and 46% fly ball rates with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Freddie Freeman is another Atlanta player that has been on fire recently. Over his last 10 games, he owns a .390 average with a .732 slugging percentage and a 1.211 OPS. He has posted seven extra-base hits (three home runs) in those games. Freeman also boasts 65% hard hit and 34% fly ball rates with a 98 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. As if that isn’t enough, he has recorded 0.026 wOBA and 0.007 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. I’m siding with one more player who has caught recently for his play. Over the last 15 days, Josh Donaldson has recorded 45% hard hit and 38% fly ball rates with a 92 MPH exit velocity. He’s also hitting .372 with a .791 slugging percentage and a 1.204 OPS over his last 10 games. In those contests, he has recorded eight extra-base hits (five home runs). It’s a bit worrisome that Atlanta will be playing on the road today, but they feature an elite offense, and should find plenty of success against a lower-level Triple-A pitcher.
Play $50 on Ronald Acuna Jr., Freddie Freeman, and Josh Donaldson OVER 7.5 total bases to win $100 (2x)
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NOTE: Props, players, and contests are subject to change throughout the day. Make sure to get these plays in as soon as possible.
