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Total Base Race – Minnesota Twins/Kansas City Royals
The Minnesota Twins get one of the best matchups on the slate against Glenn Sparkman. He has struggled with a 1-3 record, 4.01 ERA, and 1.31 WHIP through 13 games (5 starts) this season. He has also recorded a 5.25 xFIP and a 5.24 SIERA in those games. Sparkman has allowed 33.6% fly ball and 12.2% HR/FB rates in 2019, as well. Furthermore, his opponents have posted a 41.5% hard hit rate against him, while he has recorded only a 10.9% soft hit rate. Sparkman has been significantly worse against left-handed batters, allowing them to hit for a .289 average with a .553 slugging percentage and a .380 wOBA. He has also allowed a .248/.376/.288 line at home this season, and he is due for regression in Kansas City. Max Kepler has been playing at an elite level recently, posting a .350 average with a .750 slugging percentage and a 1.208 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns eight extra-base hits (four home runs) in those games, as well. He also boasts 62% hard hit and 52% fly ball and 95 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Kepler has been at his best against right-handed pitching, as he enters this game with 0.064 wOBA and 0.113 ISO differentials against righties. Jorge Polanco is another player that has performed well against righties, boasting 0.107 wOBA and 0.091 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. His numbers don’t pop off the page over his last 10 games, as he’s hitting .267 with a .356 slugging percentage and a .676 OPS over that span. He has recorded four extra-base hits in those games, as well. Polanco could be in line for a breakout, though, as he owns 42% hard hit and 57% fly ball rates with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Nelson Cruz is another player who has caught fire recently. He has posted a .333 average with a .690 slugging percentage and a 1.119 OPS over his last 10 games. He has recorded seven extra-base hits (four home runs) in those games. As if that isn’t enough, Cruz brings 61% hard hit and 38% fly ball rates with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days into this game. He has been better against left-handed pitching, but there’s no reason to avoid him against a righty.
Play $50 on Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, and Nelson Cruz OVER 7.5 total bases to win $100 (2x)
NOTE: Nelson Cruz isn’t in the lineup. Insert Mitch Garver into this play.
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