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Total Base Race – Toronto Blue Jays/Colorado Rockies
The Colorado Rockies get a matchup against Aaron Sanchez, who has posted a 3-5 record with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP through 12 starts. He’s in line for regression, though, as he also owns a 4.85 xFIP and a 4.99 SIERA this season. Sanchez has held his opponents to 28.5% fly ball and 12.2% HR/FB rates, which is a bit of a concern, but his opponents have found plenty of other ways to score runs against him in 2019. He has also allowed a 36.6% hard hit rate to go along with a 19.2% soft hit rate this season. His strikeout rate sits at 20.9%, while he brings a 10.3% swinging strike rate into this game. Sanchez is also allowing his opponents to hit for a .283 average with a .425 slugging percentage and a .355 wOBA on the road this season. The three players in this play for Colorado have been three of the hottest hitters in the MLB recently. Trevor Story enters this game with a .425 average, .875 slugging percentage, and 1.352 OPS over his last 10 games. He has also posted 57% hard hit and 37% fly ball rates to go along with a 95 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. David Dahl’s peripherals aren’t quite as up to par, as he only owns 32% hard hit and fly ball rates with a 92 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. With that being said, he’s hitting .439 with a .659 slugging percentage and a 1.159 OPS over his last 10 games. Furthermore, Dahl enters this game a 0.027 ISO differential against right-handed pitching. The final piece of the puzzle is Nolan Arenado, who brings a .487 average with an .897 slugging percentage and a 1.443 OPS over his last 10 games into this contest. He also boasts 44% hard hit and 36% fly ball rates over the last 15 days, although his exit velocity sits at only 89 MPH over that span. Still, this trio is averaging 9.7 total bases per game over their last 10 games. As logic would dictate, each player is significantly better in Colorado, and they are hitting near the top of the order. Truthfully, I wouldn’t mind adding a bit of juice on the 3x (over 8.5) and 5x (over 11.5), but if this is the route you’re taking, making sure you’re using smart bankroll management.
Play $50 on Trevor Story, David Dahl, and Nolan Arenado OVER 7.5 total bases to win $100 (2x)
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NOTE: Props, players, and contests are subject to change throughout the day. Make sure to get these plays in as soon as possible.
