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Total Base Race – New York Mets/New York Yankees
The New York Yankees get a matchup against Jason Vargas, who has quietly thrown well this season. He owns a 2-3 record with a 3.57 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP through 10 games (9 starts). With that being said, he’s a candidate for regression, as he enters this game with a 4.99 xFIP and a 5.05 SIERA. Vargas has allowed a 38.3% fly ball rate in 2019, although he has held his opponents to a 9.8% HR/FB rate. He has also allowed a 40.1% hard hit rate, while recording only a 16.8% soft hit rate. Vargas has also struggled a bit with 19.1% strikeout and 7.4% swinging strike rates this season. He has been worse against left-handed batters, but he’s allowing righties to hit for a .244 average with a .407 slugging percentage and a .409 wOBA this season. More importantly, he has allowed his opponents to post a .278/.506/.361 line on the road in 2019. DJ LeMahieu has found plenty of success recently, recording a .356 average with a .644 slugging percentage and a 1.040 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns seven extra-base hits (three home runs) in those games, as well. Furthermore, he has posted 42% hard hit and 34% fly ball rates with a 93 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. LeMahieu enters this game with 0.037 wOBA and 0.045 ISO differentials against left-handed pitching. He is leading off for New York, and he’s arguably the safest option for the Yankees tonight. Luke Voit has struggled at times against lefties this season, but he owns a career .277 average, .592 slugging percentage, .933 OPS, .315 ISO, and .389 wOBA against left-handed pitching. He has found success recently, as well, posting a .308 average with a .538 slugging percentage and a .938 OPS over his last 10 games. He has recorded four extra-base hits (two home runs) in those games. Surprisingly, he has only posted 35% hard hit and fly ball rates with a 93 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Still, he makes an elite option in this game. Unlike Voit, Gary Sanchez owns elite metrics, posting 45% hard hit and 48% fly ball rates with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He has only posted a .243 average with a .541 slugging percentage and an .858 OPS over his last 10 games. In those contests, he has recorded five extra-base hits (three home runs). While Sanchez hasn’t dominated left-handed pitching this season, he posted a .229 average with a .518 slugging percentage, an .872 OPS, a .289 ISO, and a .373 wOBA against lefties in 2018. If you want to remove one of these players, I’m also interested in Gleyber Torres and Clint Frazier, but they didn’t make the cut for this article.
Play $50 on DJ LeMahieu, Luke Voit, and Gary Sanchez OVER 6.5 total bases to win $100 (2x)
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NOTE: Props, players, and contests are subject to change throughout the day. Make sure to get these plays in as soon as possible.
