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Over Under 2/2 – Miami Marlins/Chicago Cubs
Kyle Hendricks has struggled to produce strikeouts this season. Through six games, he has only posted five or more strikeouts once, posting 11 against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Overall, his strikeout rate is down to only 18.1%, while his swinging strike rate sits at 7.8% this season. His strikeout rate increases to 21.1% at home, and he was at his best [in terms of strikeouts] at home in 2018, as well. Most importantly, the Miami Marlins lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while ranking second last in team wOBA. Hendricks comes with tremendous control, and that should allow him to pitch deep into this game. Jose Urena is one of my least favorites pitchers on the slate, but this total is a bit too low. He has posted 4+ strikeouts in six of his seven starts this season. He only owns a 16.5% strikeout rate to go along with a 7.5% swinging strike rate. This is somewhat of a plus matchup, though. The Chicago Cubs feature a solid offense, but they also rank fourth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. There are also 16 MPH winds blowing from right to left in this game, which could knock down fly balls, allowing Urena to pitch deeper into this game. I don’t truly expect Urena to find much success, but Miami has allowed him to throw 6+ innings, even when struggling. If that’s the case, he should find the over on such a low prop.
Play $50 on Kyle Hendricks OVER 4.5 strikeouts and Jose Urena OVER 3.5 strikeouts to win $125 (2.5x)
Over Under 2/2 – Los Angeles Angels/Detroit Tigers
Matthew Boyd has been an elite pitcher early this season, posting 32% strikeout and 15% swinging strike rates in 2019. He owns 7+ strikeouts in five of his seven starts, while averaging 8.1 strikeouts per start. With that being said, his strikeout rate drops to 27.9% at home this season. That was also the case in 2018, although not as drastically. This is a matchup play, though, as the Los Angeles Angels rank last on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. Boyd’s strikeout potential could continue throughout the season, but this is a difficult matchup for any left-handed pitcher. Tyler Skaggs is in a nearly opposite position. He enters this game with a respectable 22.9% strikeout rate to go along with an 8.3% swinging strike rate. That strikeout rate also increases to 24.6% on the road, although he owned similar home/road strikeout splits in 2018. The Detroit Tigers rank second on this slate in strikeouts per at-bat. He has only posted 6+ strikeouts in one of his five starts this season, but I’m expecting him to find that in a plus matchup tonight.
Play $50 on Matthew Boyd UNDER 6.5 strikeouts and Tyler Skaggs OVER 5.5 strikeouts to win $126 (2.52x)
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NOTE: Props, players, and contests are subject to change throughout the day. Make sure to get these plays in as soon as possible.
