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Over Under 2/2 – Minnesota Twins/Toronto Blue Jays
This is an odd slate with a few of my favorite pitching options not available on MonkeyKnifeFight. Still, we have plenty of props to choose from. Jose Berrios has found quite a bit of strikeout success this season, posting 25.1% strikeout and 11.3% swinging strike rates. He gets an elite matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays, who rank second on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking as a slightly below average offense in terms of team wOBA. I expect Berrios to throw deep into this game tonight, and he comes with elite strikeout potential in a plus matchup. Aaron Sanchez has thrown extremely well this season, but he’s due for regression, as he owns a 5.28 xFIP and a 5.53 SIERA. His strikeout rate also sits at only 18.8%, while he has posted an 8.0% swinging strike rate thus far this season. He gets a matchup against the Minnesota Twins, who rank in the bottom-five of the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. They also rank as an above average offense in terms of team wOBA. Unlike Berrios, I don’t expect Sanchez to find success in this matchup. He could struggle to find strikeouts in full innings, and I don’t expect him to hit the over in potentially limited innings.
Play $50 on Jose Berrios OVER 6.5 strikeouts and Aaron Sanchez UNDER 3.5 strikeouts to win $118.50 (2.37x)
Over Under 2/2 – Kansas City Royals/Houston Astros
Collin McHugh’s strikeout and swinging strike rates are a bit down this season, but they still sit at 25% and 11.3%, respectively. His strikeout rate increases to 31% at home, though. While McHugh has seen limited starts in 2019, his strikeout rate (37.8%) at home was also 8.3% higher at home in 2018. He gets a matchup against the Kansas City Royals, who rank as a slightly above average team in terms of strikeouts per at-bat on the slate. They have also struggled as an offense this season, and there’s a very real chance McHugh could find his fourth nine strikeout game this season. Danny Duffy has only started two games this season, but his strikeout rate has dropped to 15.6%. His swinging strike rate sits at 11.3%, though, and it’s likely he sees positive regression as the season continues. With that being said, he gets a matchup against the Houston Astros, who rank fourth last on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking second in team wOBA. Houston’s elite offense shouldn’t have any issues finding success in this matchup, and Duffy could struggle in limited innings.
Play $50 on Collin McHugh OVER 6.5 strikeouts and Danny Duffy UNDER 3.5 strikeouts to win $119 (2.38x)
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NOTE: Props, players, and contests are subject to change throughout the day. Make sure to get these plays in as soon as possible.
