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Over Under 2/2 – Washington Nationals/Milwaukee Brewers
It’s tough to trust Max Scherzer at this total in this matchup, but we have to play him to get Jhoulys Chacin’s low total. Scherzer has struggled quite a bit this season, but he’s due for positive regression, as his 2.66 xFIP and his 2.76 SIERA are significantly lower than his 4.08 ERA. He also owns a 32.8% strikeout rate to go along with a 16.1% swinging strike rate. His swinging strike rate suggests that he could find strikeouts at a higher rate as the season continues. The Milwaukee Brewers also rank sixth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. Scherzer owns 9+ strikeouts in four of his seven starts, and he could find success once again tonight. Jhouls Chacin’s strikeout rate is down to 18.1%, while his swinging strike rate sits at only 7.7% this season. His strikeout rate increases to 22.5% against right-handed batters, though, and the Washington Nationals feature a right-handed heavy lineup. Furthermore, they rank third on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while ranking in the same position in team wOBA. Chacin should be able to pitch deep into this game, allowing him to hit the over.
Play $50 on Max Scherzer OVER 8.5 strikeouts and Jhoulys Chacin OVER 4.5 strikeouts to win $121 (2.42x)
Over Under 2/2 – Miami Marlins/Chicago Cubs
Cole Hamels has been enjoying a solid season, and he owns a 24.3% strikeout rate. He also owns a 10.8% swinging strike rate in 2019. Hamels gets one of the best matchups on the slate, as the Miami Marlins rank second on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking last in team wOBA. It’s cold in Chicago, and the wind is blowing in. He should be able to pitch deep into this game, allowing him to record 7+ strikeouts in his fourth consecutive start. Sandy Alcantara is also in a good spot in terms of weather, but I don’t fully expect him to throw deep into this game. In 2019, he owns a 14.7% strikeout rate, although his swinging strike percentage sits at 11.0%. Alcantara has recorded only two strikeouts through nine road innings in two road starts. The sample size is far too low to trust, but the Chicago Cubs rank as a below average team in terms of strikeouts per at-bat. They could find early success against Alcantara, resulting in limited strikeout potential.
Play $50 on Cole Hamels OVER 6.5 strikeouts and Sandy Alcantara UNDER 4.5 strikeouts to win $120.50 (2.41x)
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