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Total Base Race – Philadelphia Phillies/Los Angeles Dodgers
Jake Arrieta has thrown relatively well this season, and this is strictly a splits play. He has allowed left-handed batters to hit for a .283 average with a .491 slugging percentage and a .368 wOBA this season. He has also allowed a 5.89 xFIP to lefties, while his strikeout rate against them drops to only 14.6%. Furthermore, he has allowed them to hit for a 42.7% hard hit rate, while recording only a 13.5% soft hit rate. Arrieta’s fly ball and HR/FB rates also increase to 37.1% and 18.2%, respectively. He has also struggled significantly more on the road, and he will be traveling to Los Angeles tonight. Joc Pederson has been playing at an elite level recently, posting a .438 average with a .781 slugging percentage and a 1.308 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns six extra-base hits (two home runs) over that span. He has also posted 38% hard hit and 41% fly ball rates with a 91 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Furthermore, Pederson enters this game with 0.18 wOBA and 0.254 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching. Corey Seager is in a similar situation, as he boasts 0.088 wOBA and 0.213 ISO differentials against righties. He has also posted a .306 average with a .556 slugging percentage and a 9.74 OPS over his last 10 games. Over that span, he has posted five extra-base hits (two home runs). He has recorded 50% hard hit and 39% fly ball rates with a 93 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. Cody Bellinger has arguably been the best hitter in the MLB this season, and he’s at his best against right-handed pitching. He enters this game with 0.1 wOBA and 0.131 ISO differentials against righties. He has also posted 51% hard hit and 46% fly ball rates with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Bellinger is hitting .250 with a .625 slugging percentage and a 1.000 OPS over his last 10 games. He has recorded seven extra-base hits (four home runs) over that span. These three players come with elite home run potential, but they are also three relatively consistent hitters. This over seems like a lock in this game, and I’m not opposed to hitting the 3x or 5x tonight.
Play $50 on Joc Pederson, Corey Seager, and Cody Bellinger OVER 7.5 total bases to win $100 (2x)
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NOTE: Props, players, and contests are subject to change throughout the day. Make sure to get these plays in as soon as possible.
