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Over Under 2/2 – Washington Nationals/Philadelphia Phillies
This prop is a bit surprising for Jeard Eickhoff, who has posted 6+ strikeouts in each of his first three games this season, although one wasn’t a start. He owns a dominant 30.8% strikeout rate to go along with a 13.1% swinging strike rate in 2019. Eickhoff has thrown six and seven innings in his two starts this season, and it’s safe to assume he’ll find similar innings tonight. He gets a matchup against the Washington Nationals, who rank second on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. Eickhoff will be throwing in a hitter friendly stadium, but he has historically been better at home throughout his career. He should have no issues finding six strikeouts in this game. Jeremy Hellickson was a bit more difficult to predict, as 3.5 strikeouts is already extremely low. The Philadelphia Phillies are an average team on this slate in terms of strikeouts per at-bat, while Hellickson enters this game with a low 13% strikeout rate in 2019. He has also struggled with a 5.5% swinging strike rate, suggesting that strikeout rate may not see positive regression. I expect the Phillies to find success early in this game, which could limited Hellickson’s innings. If that’s the case, he will struggle to produce strikeouts, as we have seen earlier in this season.
Play $50 on Jerad Eickhoff OVER 5.5 strikeouts and Jeremy Hellickson UNDER 3.5 strikeouts to win $126 (2.52x)
Over Under 2/2 – Arizona Diamondbacks/Colorado Rockies
I wasn’t planning on playing this game, but I wanted to check and see if we got Robbie Ray at a discount. It turns out we did, and I’m willing to take a chance on that. Ray is a high-end strikeout threat, posting a 27.2% strikeout rate to go along with an 11.5% swinging strike rate in 2019. Most importantly, he gets a matchup against the Colorado Rockies, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. I expect Colorado to find plenty of success in this game, but Ray has thrown at least five innings in each of his first six starts, and it’d be shocking if he didn’t have that leash again tonight. If that’s the case, this total is too low for someone with his strikeout potential. Tyler Anderson’s strikeout rate sits at 20.9% this season, and it would be significantly lower if it wasn’t for a nine strikeout performance against the Atlanta Braves. Prior to that game, Anderson totaled 9 strikeouts over 12 innings. He owns a reasonable 10.3% swinging strike rate, though. He gets a matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who strikeout at a slightly above average rate on this slate. While the matchup in terms of strikeouts is a plus, he will struggle with their power and consistency. Unlike Ray, Anderson isn’t going to be locked into 5+ innings, and he lacks strikeout potential. For that reason, I expect him to find the under, similarly to his first three games in 2019.
Play $50 on Robbie Ray OVER 5.5 strikeouts and Tyler Anderson UNDER 4.5 strikeouts to win $127 (2.54x)
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NOTE: Props, players, and contests are subject to change throughout the day. Make sure to get these plays in as soon as possible.
