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Total Base Race – St. Louis Cardinals/Philadelphia Phillies
This game could potentially get postponed, but if it doesn’t, I love the spot the Philadelphia Phillies are in. They get a matchup against Genesis Cabrera, who will be making his MLB debut tonight. In 2019, he has struggled in the Triple-A, posting a 6.35 xFIP over nine games (seven starts). He has also allowed ridiculous 49.6% fly ball and 18.3% HR/FB rates. There’s very little reason to believe that Cabrera will find early success in the MLB, and taking three of the Phillies first four hitters makes an elite strategy. Andrew McCutchen enters this game with a 0.031 wOBA against left-handed pitching. He has also caught fire recently, posting 48% hard hit and 43% fly ball rates with a 95 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Over his last 10 games, McCutchen is also averaging 2.4 total bases per game. Bryce Harper has also been heating up recently, recording 52% hard hit and 32% fly ball rates with a 96 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Surprisingly, he has been slightly better against left-handed pitching, as he owns 0.004 wOBA and 0.012 ISO differentials against lefties. Harper has also posted a .275 average with a .525 slugging percentage and an .858 OPS over his last 10 games. He’s also averaging 2.1 total bases per game over that span. Hoskins hasn’t been playing as well because of his lack of power recently, but he’s still hitting .294 with a .500 slugging percentage and a .932 OPS over his last 10 games. He has posted 50% hard hit and 47% fly ball rates with a 92 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days, as well. Hoskins has been better against right-handed pitching, but this is a matchup he can take advantage of. Each of these players come with multi-hit potential, while also possessing home run power. I expect Philadelphia to find plenty of success in this game, and it is likely to start with this trio.
Play $50 on Andrew McCutchen, Rhys Hoskins, and Bryce Harper OVER 6.5 total bases to win $100 (2x)
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