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Over Under 2/2 – Detroit Tigers/Baltimore Orioles
Matthew Boyd has played extremely well this season, posting a 3.57 xFIP and a 3.32 SIERA through 11 starts. He has looked outstanding in those games in terms of strikeouts, posting 29.6% strikeout and 13.1% swinging strike rates this season. His strikeout rate also increases to 35.4% on the road. Boyd gets a matchup against the Baltimore Orioles, who rank seventh on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also posting a below average team wOBA. The only real concern in this game is the hitter friendly stadium, but Boyd has been able to neutralize better offenses than Baltimore, and I expect him to find similar success tonight. Dylan Bundy isn’t a great pitcher, but he has thrown 5+ innings in each of his last eight starts, even when struggling. He has flashed strikeout upside, posting 23.3% strikeout and 12.6% swinging strike rates in 2019. Most importantly, he gets a matchup against the Detroit Tigers, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. They also rank below average in team wOBA. Even if he struggles, Bundy can find 5+ innings, making the over more than reasonable tonight.
Play $50 on Matthew Boyd OVER 6.5 strikeouts and Dylan Bundy OVER 5.5 strikeouts to win $125 (2.5x)
Over Under 2/2 – Los Angeles Angels/Oakland A’s
Frankie Montas has found plenty of success this season, posting a 3.28 xFIP and a 3.55 SIERA through 10 starts. He has also posted a 24.7% strikeout rate to go along with a 12% swinging strike rate. With that being said, Montas gets the worst matchup on the slate for strikeouts. His opponents, the Los Angeles Angels, rank last on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. They also rank seventh in team wOBA. While Montas could find success in this game, he’ll likely struggle to find strikeouts against this lineup. Mike Trout has been playing well recently, posting a .294 average with a .706 slugging percentage and a 1.160 OPS over his last 10 games. Most importantly, he owns a .455 on-base percentage in those games. Over that span, Trout has found his way on base 19 total times. He’s a player that consistently records walks, and he has recorded 45% hard hit and 51% fly ball rates with a 96 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Trout has been at his best against right-handed pitching, posting 0.064 wOBA and 0.062 ISO differentials against righties. Trout will hit second in the Los Angeles lineup, and he makes a strong option, even in a tough matchup.
Play $50 on Frankie Montas UNDER 4.5 strikeouts and Mike Trout OVER 1.5 hits and walks to win $120 (2.4x)
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