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Home Run Derby – Baltimore Orioles/Colorado Rockies
The Colorado Rockies should find plenty of success with the long ball at home today. They get an ideal matchup against David Hess, who has allowed ridiculous 56% fly ball and 21.5% HR/FB rates in 2019. He has also recorded only a 24.8% ground ball rate this season. Hess has allowed his opponents to post a 39.2% hard hit rate, while recording only a 15.4% soft hit rate. Colorado will also benefit from the thin air at Coors Field, and the only question is getting the right players in this play. Trevor Story has been at his best against left-handed pitching, but he has found plenty of success against righties, as well. He also enters this game with 41% hard hit and 55% fly ball rates to go along with a 93 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Furthermore, 25% of Story’s hits at home have been home runs. Surprisingly, Arenado has found significantly more home runs on the road this season, but he’s still hitting .393 with a .690 slugging percentage in Colorado. His recent numbers aren’t overly impressive, but Arenado was on a road trip, and he has posted three home runs in his first two games back in Colorado for this series. He also owns 40% hard hit and 40% fly ball rates over the last 15 days. Raimel Tapia is expected to lead off once again, and he makes a sneaky option. He only owns a 25% fly ball rate over the last 15 days, but this matchup will make up for that. He also bring 0.009 wOBA and 0.082 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game. Tapia is hitting .333 at home with a 19.1% home run rate, making him the final part of this play.
Play $50 on Trevor Story, Nolan Arenado, and Raimel Tapia OVER 0.5 home runs to win $75 (1.5x)
Over Under 2/2 – Chicago White Sox/Minnesota Twins
Jake Odorizzi is due for regression, but it may not come in this game. He has looked dominant at home, where he owns a 4-0 record with a 1.45 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP through five starts. He also gets an elite matchup against the Chicago White Sox, who rank second last in team wOBA on this slate, potentially allowing Odorizzi to pitch deep into this game. His strikeout rate shoots up to 27.1% in Minnesota, as well, while his walk rate drops to only 5.1%. Chicago leads the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, and there’s very little reason to believe they’ll find success in this matchup. With the potential to throw seven innings, Odorizzi is a strong bet for the over. Abreu’s numbers aren’t bad recently, as he’s hitting .263 with a .579 slugging percentage and an .861 OPS over his last 10 games. He owns six extra-base hits (three home runs) and six RBIs over that span. With that being said, his peripherals somewhat tell a different story. He owns 40% hard hit and 35% fly ball rates with a 90 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He also brings -0.084 wOBA and -0.01 ISO differentials against right-handed pitching into this game. If Odorizzi is going to find success, he’ll have to neutralize a player like Abreu, which I expect him to do. If so, that will result in the under hitting here.
Play $50 on Jake Odorizzi OVER 6.5 strikeouts and Jose Abreu UNDER 1.5 total bases to win $131.50 (2.63x)
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NOTE: Props, players, and contests are subject to change throughout the day. Make sure to get these plays in as soon as possible.
