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Over Under 2/2 – Baltimore Orioles/Colorado Rockies
Trevor Story has seen plenty of ups and downs recently, as he’s hitting .239 with a .391 slugging percentage and a .677 OPS over his last 10 games. He has been better than those numbers suggest, though, as he owns 46% hard hit and 51% fly ball rates to go along with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He gets a great matchup against John Means, who has struggled with a 43.7% fly ball rate in 2019. In 2018, Story his .374 with an .879 slugging percentage and a .505 ISO against left-handed pitching in Coors. He should find plenty of succes in a plus matchup, and a home run would hit the over, although he could with multi-hit potential. Jonathan Villar is in a bit of an odd spot. He has been ice cold recently, but he’s leading off for an offense playing at Coors Field. He also gets a matchup against Jeff Hoffman, who owns a career 5.01 xFIP and a 4.98 SIERA in the MLB. I expect the Baltimore Orioles to find plenty of success in this game, and if that’s the case, Villar could see five or six at-bats. He also enters this game with a 0.041 wOBA against right-handed pitching. While I worry about Villar’s recent struggles, I expect him to see enough opportunities to find the over in this matchup.
Play $50 on Trevor Story OVER 2.5 total bases and Jonathan Villar OVER 1.5 hits and walks to win $122.50 (2.45x)
Over Under 2/2 – Boston Red Sox/Houston Astros
This is an overreaction to the matchup for Chris Sale. He gets a matchup against the Houston Astros, who feature an elite offense against left-handed pitching, while ranking third last on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. With that being said, Sale enters this game with a 35.3% strikeout rate to go along with a 14.8% swinging strike rate. After struggling in his first four games, Sale has posted 8+ strikeouts in six consecutive games. Over that span, he’s averaging a ridiculous 11.5 strikeouts per game. Furthermore, Sale posted 10 strikeouts in only 5.1 innings in his last start, which was against Houston. Wade Miley also gets a tough matchup against the Boston Red Sox, who rank fourth last on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. Miley has also struggled with a 15.9% strikeout rate to go along with an 8.9% swinging strike rate this season. With that being said, Miley’s strike rate jumps from 11.2% on the road to 23.3% at home. I don’t believe he’ll be an elite strikeout option tonight, but he has the potential for 4+ strikeouts in Houston.
Play $50 on Chris Sale OVER 7.5 strikeouts and Wade Miley OVER 3.5 strikeouts to win $121 (2.42x)
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