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Over Under 5/5 – New York Yankees/Baltimore Orioles
Normally, I run a pair of 2/2, but I’m going with one significantly larger play tonight. I’m expecting a big game from the New York Yankees, resulting in plenty of overs. CC Sabathia has struggled a bit with strikeouts this season, as he owns a 17.8% strikeout rate in 2019. He also owns a 9.1% swinging strike rate this season. With that being said, he gets a matchup against the Baltimore Orioles, who rank second on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. They also rank fourth last on the slate in team wOBA. Sabathia generally doesn’t throw deep into games, but I’m expecting him to find the over in six innings tonight.
Jonathan Villar is the Baltimore player in the slate, and we’re attacking his under. He’s only hitting .222 over his last 10 games, while posting a .282 OBP. He doesn’t walk at a high rate, and he’ll likely need multiple hits in this game to find the over. Villar has also struggled against left-handed pitching this season, as he’s hitting for only a .180 average against lefties in 2019. He’s hitting second in the Baltimore lineup, which could give him extra at-bats, but I still expect him to struggle in this game.
Gary Sanchez is in an interesting spot tonight. He has been playing well recently, posting a .268 average with a .537 slugging percentage and an .855 OPS over his last 10 games. More importantly for this play, he owns 15 RBIs and runs over that span. He also owns 11 runs and RBIs over his first two games in this series. Sanchez has also posted 44% hard hit and 62% fly ball rates with a 94 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. While it generally isn’t overly likely that a player hits a home run in three consecutive games, Sanchez is a player that has a realistic shot tonight. He gets a matchup against Dan Straily, who has allowed 51.7% fly ball and 16.4% HR/FB rates this season. I expect the Yankees to score plenty of runs in this game, and Sanchez should be in the middle of that as he’s hitting third in the New York lineup.
Luke Voit and Gleyber Torres are two players that will benefit from this elite matchup. Voit only owns 34% hard hit and 42% fly ball rates with a 90 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. He’s also hitting .306 with a .472 slugging percentage and a .917 OPS over the last 15 days. Voit has posted two hits in each of the first two games in this series, as well. Torres has been one of the best hitters in the MLB recently, hitting .405 with an .892 slugging percentage and a 1.368 OPS over his last 10 games. He has also posted 40% hard hit and 45% fly ball rates with a 93 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Voit and Torres are two powerful options, who should have no problems finding success in such an elite matchup.
Play $20 on CC Sabathia OVER 4.5 strikeouts, Jonathan Villar UNDER 1.5 hits and walks, Gary Sanchez OVER 1.5 runs and RBIs, Luke Voit OVER 1.5 total bases, and Gleyber Torres OVER 1.5 total bases to win $340 (17x)
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NOTE: Props, players, and contests are subject to change throughout the day. Make sure to get these plays in as soon as possible.
