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Over Under 2/2 – Arizona Diamondbacks/San Diego Padres
Zack Greinke struggled a bit early this season, but he has looked outstanding recently. He enters this game with a 25.4% strikeout rate to go along with an 8.9% swinging strike rate. He also brings a 3.3% walk rate into this game, flashing elite control that has allowed him to pitch deep into games. He’s expected to receive his full workload after an abdominal injury. Greinke gets a matchup against the San Diego Padres, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also featuring a below average team wOBA. On the other side, Matt Strahm has been throwing significantly better after recording only two strikeouts in each of his first two starts this season. Overall, he owns a 21.2% strikeout rate with a 9.6% swinging strike rate. He has also flashed more strikeout upside than that, while displaying similar control to Greinke. The Arizona Diamondbacks don’t strikeout at an overly high rate, but the total of this game is set at only 7 runs, and Strahm should also be able to throw 6+ innings.
Play $50 on Zack Greinke OVER 6.5 strikeouts and Matt Strahm OVER 5.5 strikeouts to win $133.50 (2.67x)
Over Under 2/2 – Minnesota Twins/Los Angeles Angels
These are two teams that don’t strikeout at high rates playing in a game set at 9 runs. Michael Pineda only owns a 20.4% strikeout rate this season, although he has posted a 12.3% swinging strike rate. Pineda generally throws 5+ innings, even when he’s struggling. That’s a bit of a concern for the under, but the Los Angeles Angels feature the lowest strikeout rate on the slate. Pineda is a matchup specific play tonight. Trevor Cahill has struggled with a 16.9% strikeout rate in 2019, while also posting a 9.5% swinging strike rate. With that being said, he generally doesn’t pitch deep into games, and has only recorded more than two strikeouts in one of his last four games. In limited innings, Cahill’s strikeout rate has increased at home, but his ERA also sits at 8.66 in those games. I expect both of these pitchers to struggle to find success, specifically in the strikeout department. The opposing offenses simply don’t strikeout enough to play the overs for either pitcher.
Play $50 on Michael Pineda UNDER 4.5 strikeouts and Trevor Cahill UNDER 4.5 strikeouts to win $123 (2.46x)
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