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Over Under 2/2 – Washington Nationals/New York Mets
Patrick Corbin is coming off of an elite game against the New York Mets, recording 11 strikeouts over eight innings. He gets a matchup against them once again tonight, and they lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. Corbin also enters this game with a 29.2% strikeout rate to go along with a 12.8% swinging strike rate in 2019. He has been a similar pitcher on the road and at home, and there’s no reason to believe he won’t find more success against New York. He owns 8+ strikeouts in two of his three starts against the Mets this season, as well. J.D. Davis gets a tough matchup against Corbin, who generally doesn’t issue a ton of walks. Davis also hasn’t recorded a walk in 10 consecutive games, essentially leaving this play to whether or not he’ll have a two-hit game. He is hitting .310 over his last 10 games, but he’s due for regression, as he only owns a 37% hard hit rate with a 93 MPH exit velocity over the last 15 days. Furthermore, he owns a 48% ground ball rate over that span. As if that isn’t enough, Davis owns a -0.064 wOBA against left-handed pitching. I expect Corbin to have another elite game, which will limit the entire Mets offense, including Davis.
Play $50 on Patrick Corbin OVER 7.5 strikeouts and J.D. Davis UNDER 1.5 hits and walks to win $127 (2.54x)
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