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Over Under 2/2 – Houston Astros/Detroit Tigers
Brad Peacock has looked solid aside from two starts this season. He owns a respectable 4.19 xFIP to go along with a 3.88 SIERA, suggesting he’ll be able to pitch deep into this game. His strikeout rate is down from his last two seasons, but it still sits at 14.7%, while he also brings a 9.3% swinging strike rate into this game. Peacock’s strikeout rate also increases to 29.7% against right-handed batters this season, which is similar to his career strikeout rate in that situation. He gets a matchup against the Detroit Tigers, who have six right-handed batters in their lineup tonight. They also rank fourth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while ranking second last in team wOBA. Peacock has only truly struggled when throwing limited innings, and I don’t expect that to be the case tonight. Matthew Boyd has posted 6+ strikeouts in seven of his eight starts this season. He has featured an elite 31.3% strikeout rate this season, while also bringing a 14.5% swinging strike rate this season. Both of these numbers are up significantly from his career averages, but also appear to be sustainable. The Houston Astros are utilizing a lineup with eight right-handed batters, and Boyd’s strikeout rate drops to 30.9% this season against righties. His strikeout rate also drops to only 27.5% at home in 2019. Houston ranks third last on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also leading the slate in team wOBA. I don’t expect Boyd to find as much success in this particular matchup, and he could struggle to hit the over if he sees limited innings.
Play $50 on Brad Peacock OVER 6.5 strikeouts and Matthew Boyd UNDER 5.5 strikeouts to win $119.50 (2.39x)
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