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Over Under 2/2 – New York Yankees/Tampa Bay Rays
Tyler Glasnow is in an interesting situation tonight. He has looked elite with a 28.8% strikeout rate to go along with a 10.8% swinging strike rate this season. He has finally thrown 90+ pitches in each of his last two games, recording 17 strikeouts over 13.2 innings. Glasnow gets a tough matchup against the New York Yankees, who don’t strikeout at a high rate, but he will benefit from playing in a pitcher friendly stadium. I expect him to pitch deep into this game, allowing him to hit the over as a dominant strikeout option. Domingo German is another strong strikeout pitcher, recording a 24.8% strikeout rate this season. He also enters this game with an elite 14.1% swinging strike rate. As if that isn’t enough, the Tampa Bay Rays lead this slate in strikeouts per at-bat by a wide margin. German is in a great spot to throw 6+ innings in this game, making him an elite option for the over in this particular matchup.
Play $50 on Tyler Glasnow OVER 6.5 strikeouts and Domingo German OVER 6.5 strikeouts to win $124.50 (2.49x)
Over Under 2/2 – Detroit Tigers/Minnesota Twins
Jake Odorizzi enters this game with a strong 26.6% strikeout rate to go along with a 12.6% swinging strike rate. He enters this game with plus metrics, although he could see overall regression soon. With that being said, Odorizzi has looked untouchable at home this season, and his strikeout rate increases to a ridiculous 34.3% in Minnesota. He gets a matchup against the Detroit Tigers, who rank fourth on the slate in strikeout rates. I expected this prop to be set at 6.5 strikeouts, and I likely still would have taken the over. Tyson Ross is in a tough spot, as this total is set extremely low. He only owns a 16.8% strikeout rate to go along with a 7.3% swinging strike rate. He has only posted 4+ strikeouts in three of his six games this season, and the Minnesota Twins aren’t a team that strikes out at a high rate. Furthermore, I expect Minnesota to score plenty of runs in this game, meaning Ross could see limited innings. Even in full innings, I don’t trust the over, making the under that much more appealing.
Play $50 on Jake Odorizzi OVER 5.5 strikeouts and Tyson Ross UNDER 3.5 strikeouts to win $117 (2.34x)
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