Over Under 2/2 – Colorado Rockies/Milwaukee Brewers
Chase Anderson has quietly been playing well this season. His strikeout rate has increased to 26.5%, while his swinging strike rate is up a bit to 10.1% in 2019. Anderson’s total strikeouts are down a bit because of his role as a reliever, but he owns two starts this season, posting 9 strikeouts in 9.2 innings. Anderson also owns only a 1.59 ERA at home, and he could pitch relatively deep into this game. He also gets a plus matchup against the Colorado Rockies, who rank eighth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. Antonio Senzatela isn’t an elite strikeout pitcher, as his strikeout rate sits at only 14.5% on the season. He also owns a low 7.1% swinging strike rate in 2019. Through three starts, he has posted four strikeouts in two of those games, while falling short only against the Philadelphia Phillies. Most importantly, Senzatela gets a matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers, who rank second on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. I don’t expect him to be an elite option tonight, but he makes a strong play for four strikeouts if he can throw five or six innings.
Play $50 on Chase Anderson OVER 4.5 strikeouts and Antonio Senzatela OVER 3.5 strikeouts to win $126.50 (2.53x)
Over Under 2/2 – Cleveland Indians/Miami Marlins
Caleb Smith has been enjoying an elite season, and there’s no reason to believe he will slow down. Through five starts, he owns a 33.9% strikeout rate to go along with a 15.6% swinging strike rate. Smith has recorded 7+ strikeouts in four of those five games, recording only six strikeouts against the Philadelphia Phillies. Smith has been better at home this season, and he gets a plus matchup against the Cleveland Indians. Cleveland ranks fifth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, and Smith should continue to find elite success in this game. Corey Kluber’s strikeout rate has surprisingly dropped this season, as it sits at only 23.8%. With that being said, his swinging strike rate still sits at 12.5%, which is up from last season and near his career average. In other words, Kluber’s could find more strikeouts as the season progresses. He gets an elite matchup against the Miami Marlins, who rank fourth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. Both of these pitchers should be able to throw relatively deep into this game, while seeing plenty of strikeout opportunities.
Play $50 on Caleb Smith OVER 6.5 strikeouts and Corey Kluber OVER 6.5 strikeouts to win $115.50 (2.31x)
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