Over Under 2/2 – New York Yankees/Houston Astros
Similarly to the majority of pitchers that play for the Houston Astros, Gerrit Cole has seen an elite uptick in strikeouts with them. He owns a career 9.3 K/9, but that jumps to 12.5 with Houston. He has also continued that this season, posting 19 strikeouts over only 12 innings. He has also posted elite 14.1% and 16.0% swinging strike percentages in 2018 and early 2019. Cole gets a matchup against the New York Yankees, who rank third on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. While they have some offensive firepower, they also strikeout at a high clip, which is dangerous against a pitcher like Cole. Jonathan Loaisiga has looked outstanding [in terms of strikeouts] since joining the Yankees. Through 10 games (five starts), he owns an 11.6 K/9. The major issue is that he has yet to go more than 5.1 innings in a game. He gets a matchup against the Astros, who rank last on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. While Loaisiga will be a lock for the over in some games, this simply isn’t the one. He could struggle to pitch deep into the game, limiting his potential opportunities for strikeouts.
Play $50 on Gerrit Cole OVER 7.5 strikeouts and Jonathan Loaisiga UNDER 5.5 strikeouts to win $117 (2.34x)
Over Under 2/2 – Minnesota Twins/New York Mets
Jacob deGrom is an odd player, where it’s hard for a site like Monkey Knife Fight to project him higher than this, but it’s also difficult for us to project him at least than double-digit strikeouts. Through two starts (13 innings), deGrom owns 24 strikeouts. He has posted double-digit strikeouts in each of those games, including a tough matchup against the Washington Nationals. He gets a matchup against the Minnesota Twins, who don’t strikeout at an elite rate, but I don’t necessarily believe that matters. deGrom is expected to throw 100+ pitches tonight, and it would be surprising if he finds less than 10 Ks in this game. Kyle Gibson broke out a bit last season, posting an 8.2 K/9, which is significantly higher than his career 6.6 K/9. I’m expecting that to continue, as he was simply a better pitcher last season than he has been in the past. The New York Mets have struck out at a relatively high rate this season, and while they have a strong offense, we’re simply looking for strikeouts. The total of this game is sitting at only 6.5 runs, and while that mainly has to do with deGrom, it suggests that Gibson could throw well, as well. If he’s able to pitch deeper into this game, he could certainly find 5+ strikeouts. Keep in mind, he gave up five earned runs in his first start, and still threw nearly five innings. I’m expecting a minimum of six innings out of Gibson tonight, which could put him on par with the strikeouts needed.
Play $50 on Jacob deGrom OVER 8.5 strikeouts and Kyle Gibson OVER 4.5 strikeouts to win $118 (2.36x)
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