Over Under 2/2 – Detroit Tigers/Philadelphia Phillies
Vince Velasquez has solid strikeout potential most nights, but this is a matchup based play. The Detroit Tigers lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, and they have struggled with the fourth lowest team wOBA on the slate. Velasquez has thrown 97 pitches in each of his last two starts, suggesting he could pitch deep into this game. He has also found plenty of success early this season, posting a 24.4% strikeout rate to go along with a 9.9% swinging strike rate. Normally, Velasquez is a pitcher I would avoid, especially in Philadelphia, but this matchup is far too attractive to miss out on. Spencer Turnbull has performed well early this season, but his peripherals suggest he’ll see regression as he gains more innings. His innings in 2019 have been limited (five starts), but his strikeout splits are alarming. He owns a 27.5% strikeout rate at home, but that drops to only 16.3% on the road. More importantly, he gets a matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies, who rank third last on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while also ranking above average in team wOBA. Turnbull will be throwing in a hitter friendly stadium tonight, and he could see a short performance with limited strikeouts in this matchup.
Play $50 on Vince Velasquez OVER 6.5 strikeouts and Spencer Turnbull UNDER 4.5 strikeouts to win $121.50 (2.43x)
Over Under 2/2 – Cincinnati Reds/New York Mets
This total is a bit low for Luis Castillo, who owns 7+ strikeouts in five of his six starts this season. He has posted a ridiculous 29.9% strikeout rate to go along with a 14% swinging strike rate. He gets a matchup against the New York Mets, who feature a solid offense, but are far from elite on this slate. They rank as an above average team in terms of strikeouts per at-bat, while ranking slightly below average in team wOBA. Castillo will look to right the ship after a poor strikeout performance against the Atlanta Braves in his last start. Opposite Castillo is Jason Vargas, who has struggled to produce strikeouts this season. He has only one game with more than three strikeouts, and it was his last contest against the Philadelphia Phillies. He has posted a terrible 13.2% strikeout rate to go along with a 7.7% swinging strike rate. There’s also very little evidence to convince us that those numbers will increase as he throws more innings. Vargas gets a matchup against the Cincinnati Reds, who don’t feature an elite offense, but they also strikeout at one of the lower rates on the slate. Vargas likely won’t throw more than five innings [at most], leaving the the under significantly more appealing than the over in this matchup.
Play $50 on Luis Castillo OVER 6.5 strikeouts and Jason Vargas UNDER 3.5 strikeouts to win $122 (2.44x)
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NOTE: Props, players, and contests are subject to change throughout the day. Make sure to get these plays in as soon as possible.
