Over Under 2/2 – Miami Marlins/Philadelphia Phillies
Zach Elfin hasn’t been a dominant strikeout pitcher this season, but he has shown flashes. His strikeout rate is down a bit from 2018, as it sits at 20.5%, while he also boasts a 9.7% swinging strike rate. Elfin’s strikeouts didn’t particularly change at home or on the road last season, but his ERA dropped from 5.62 away from home to 3.33 in Philadelphia, allowing him to throw deeper into game. This is a matchup based play, though, as Elfin will face off against the Miami Marlins, who rank as a below average team on this slate in terms of strikeouts per at-bat. If Eflin can throw six or seven innings in this game, he should find the over. This is a bit of an odd total for Pablo Lopez. He hasn’t thrown deep into game yet this season, but he has posted five or more strikeouts in each of his five starts. Lopez owns a strong 25.9% strikeout rate to go along with an 11.9 swinging strike rate. He also gets a matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. As long as Lopez doesn’t get rocked in this first couple innings, he should have no problems hitting the over here.
Play $50 on Zach Eflin OVER 5.5 strikeouts and Pablo Lopez OVER 4.5 strikeouts to win $128.50 (2.57x)
Over Under 2/2 – Detroit Tigers/Chicago White Sox
It’s clear that I’m strikeout happy for Sunday baseball. Matthew Boyd has taken a major step forward this season, and he already owns two games with 10+ strikeouts. Overall, he owns an elite 31% strikeout rate to go along with a ridiculous 16.1% swinging strike rate. While I’m a bit concerned that these numbers aren’t sustainable for him, he gets an elite matchup against the Chicago White Sox. They rank third on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, and they have also struggled against left-handed pitching. Boyd should be able to pitch deep into this game, and I wouldn’t be overly shocked if he finds double-digit strikeouts again. Reynaldo Lopez saw a matchup against the Detroit Tigers, and we made the exact same play in that game. He totaled eight strikeouts for us, as we collected our money. I’m going back to the well here. He owns a 20.7% strikeout rate on the season, while also posting a 9.5% swinging strike rate. Those numbers are up slightly from his career averages. More importantly is the matchup. Detroit ranks second on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, and they feature one of the worst offenses. Lopez is throwing at home, and I’d expect him to throw at least six innings once again. If that’s the case, the over looks extremely appealing once again.
Play $50 on Matthew Boyd OVER 6.5 strikeouts and Reynaldo Lopez OVER 5.5 strikeouts to win $130 (2.6x)
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NOTE: Props, players, and contests are subject to change throughout the day. Make sure to get these plays in as soon as possible.
