Over Under 2/2 – Texas Rangers/Seattle Mariners
Shelby Miller is one of the worst starting pitchers in the MLB, and he has averaging less than four innings per start this season. He gets a matchup against the Seattle Mariners, who feature the second highest implied run total on the slate. In other words, I don’t expect Miller to pitch deep into this game. He has also struggled with a 7.3% strikeout rate to go along with a 5.0% swinging strike rate this season. Miller has yet to record more than three strikeouts in any game this season, and there’s very little reason to believe he will in limited innings tonight. Haniger has flashed tremendous power recently, posting a 77.8% extra-base hit rate over his last 10 games. Over that span, he owns seven extra-base hits. Haniger also owns three games with two hits over that span. He has posted 45% hard-hit and 48% fly ball rates with a 91 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days. Haniger is expected to lead off for Seattle, and he can find the over with two hits or an extra-base hit tonight. That’s the side I like in a matchup against Miller.
Play $50 on Shelby Miller UNDER 3.5 strikeouts and Mitch Haniger OVER 1.5 total bases to win $117 (2.34x)
Over Under 2/2 – San Diego Padres/Washington Nationals
Max Scherzer has struggled quite a bit this season, but his 2.55 xFIP and 2.75 SIERA suggest he’ll find more success as the season progresses. He has also been significantly better at home. Most importantly, Scherzer owns a 32.6% strikeout rate to go along with a 16.3% swinging strike rate in 2019. He posted a 38.4% strikeout rate against right-handed batters last season, and the San Diego Padres are using a lineup with seven right-handed batters. The Padres also rank sixth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, and Scherzer should find double-digit strikeouts in this game. Matt Strahm has flashed tremendous strikeout potential throughout his career, but that hasn’t been the case this season. He currently owns a 15.3% strikeout rate with a 9.8% swinging strike rate in 2019. While he could see this rate increase throughout the rest of the season, this is a tough matchup for Strahm. The Washington Nationals rank fourth last on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, and Strahm owns only one game with more than four strikeouts this season. In that game, he went eight innings, while throwing only 87 pitches. That’s highly unlikely to happen again, making the under significantly more appealing in this play.
Play $50 on Max Scherzer OVER 9.5 strikeouts and Matt Strahm UNDER 4.5 strikeouts to win $118.50 (2.37x)
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