Over Under 2/2 – Minnesota Twins/Houston Astros
These props are extremely low, which is a bit concerning. Wade Miley has struggled to find strikeouts this season, posting a 12.1% strikeout rate, but he owns a 9.3% swinging strike rate. For comparison, his strikeout rate is 6.3% below his career average, while his swinging strike rate is 0.7% higher than his career average, suggesting he’ll see positive regression through more innings. The Houston Astros are also known for getting the most out of their pitchers in terms of strikeouts. The Minnesota Twins rank as a below average offense in terms of strikeouts per at-bat, which could stop Miley from finding his groove tonight, but he’ll likely be able to throw deep into this game at home tonight. If he finds six innings, four strikeouts is nearly a lock. Michael Pineda’s strikeout rate is down a bit this season, but still sits at 21.1%. The same can be said for his swinging strike rate, which is currently 11.3%. This is a matchup play, though. Pineda gets a matchup against Houston, who ranks third last on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while leading the slate in team wOBA. He’ll likely struggle to pitch deep into this game, while struggling to find strikeouts. Four strikeouts is an extremely low total, but the under looks more appealing in this particular matchup.
Play $50 on Wade Miley OVER 3.5 strikeouts and Michael Pineda UNDER 3.5 strikeouts to win $128 (2.56x)
Over Under 2/2 – Philadelphia Phillies/New York Mets
Zack Wheeler’s strikeout percentage dropped from 24.1% to 21.6% from 2018 to 2019. His swinging strike percentage also dropped from 10.7% to 8.9% over that span. He should be in line for positive regression, though, as he is throwing the same pitches at nearly an identical rate, while his velocity has increased in 2019. He gets a matchup against the Philadelphia Phillies, who rank fifth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. Wheeler has thrown 13 innings in his last two games, and he finally looks like the pitcher he was last season. He has the potential to pitcher six or seven innings in this game, as well, making the over an ideal spot to attack. Zach Eflin’s strikeout percentage sits at 21.5%, while he owns a 9.6% swinging strike rate this season. His numbers are a bit inflated by his elite first game against the Washington Nationals. Since then, he has posted 11 strikeouts in 17 innings. Eflin gets a matchup against the New York Mets, who rank in the bottom-six of the MLB in strikeouts per at-bat. I’m expecting the Mets offense to find success in this matchup, and Eflin could struggle to pitch deep into this game. Even if he throws his normal six innings (even seven), he could still find the under.
Play $50 on Zack Wheeler OVER 5.5 strikeouts and Zach Eflin UNDER 5.5 strikeouts to win $123.50 (2.47x)
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