Over Under 2/2 – Arizona Diamondbacks/Pittsburgh Pirates
Joe Musgrove has looked outstanding in his three starts this season. He has recorded 6+ strikeouts in each game, while throwing at least 6.1 innings. His strikeout rate sits at 25.6%, while his swinging strike rate is 13.3%. Musgrove’s fastball velocity is down a bit this season, but he’s throwing his slider at a significantly higher rate, which has resulted in more strikeouts. He gets a matchup against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who strikeout at a slightly below average rate on this slate. While that is a concern, Musgrove is an extremely accurate pitcher, who won’t waste pitches, and will throw deep into this game. Zack Godley is nearly the exact opposite of Musgrove. He’s a bit of a wild pitcher, who has yet to throw more than six innings in a game. He has also recorded more than five strikeouts in only one of his four starts this season. His strikeout rate is down to 19.6% in 2019, but his swinging strike rate is sitting at 11.7%. He could see positive regression, and my major concern is that the Pittsburgh Pirates strikeout at the second highest rate on the slate. With that being said, Godley’s strikeout rate in 2018 dropped from 26.7% at home to 20.8% on the road. It has also been significantly lower on the road this season, and I’ll be looking to attack his over when he’s throwing in Arizona. Tonight, the under is more appealing.
Play $50 on Joe Musgrove OVER 5.5 strikeouts and Zack Godley UNDER 5.5 strikeouts to win $118 (2.36x)
Over Under 2/2 – Texas Rangers/Oakland A’s
Mike Minor has performed extremely well this season, but he has only posted more than five strikeouts in two of his four starts. His strikeout rate sits at 21% this season, while his swinging strike rate is an outstanding 11.5%. With that being said, this is simply a terrible matchup for him. He’ll face off against the Oakland A’s, who rank in the bottom-eight of the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. Minor’s strikeout rate also drops 5.3% against right-handed batters and 2.2% on the road. He’ll be throwing on the road against a team that is loaded with righties. It’s a terrible situation, and he could struggle to produce strikeouts in this matchup. Chris Bassitt will be making his 2019 MLB debut tonight. He isn’t known as an elite strikeout pitcher, as he owns a career 17.8% strikeout rate to go along with a 7.7 swinging strike percentage. With that being said, he gets a matchup against the Texas Rangers, who rank sixth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. Texas has struggled away from home, which could allow Bassitt to throw deeper into this game. I’m playing the situation over the player here.
Play $50 on Mike Minor UNDER 5.5 strikeouts and Chris Bassitt OVER 4.5 strikeouts to win $116.50 (2.33x)
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