Over Under 2/2 – Toronto Blue Jays/Minnesota Twins
Odorizzi is in an interesting spot, as he’s coming off of two bad games, but it’s difficult to fault him for struggling on the road against the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets. In his only home game with a plus matchup this season, he recorded 11 strikeouts over 6 innings against the Cleveland Indians. His K/9 is up to 11.9 on the season, while his K% sits at 32.6%, which is up drastically from his career 22.1%. Furthermore, Odorizzi’s swinging strike percentage on the season has jumped to 15.1%, which is significantly higher than his career 10%. He gets a great matchup against the Toronto Blue Jays, who lead the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. Odorizzi has been a better pitcher at home throughout his career, and he should find plenty of success in his second plus matchup of the season. Randal Grichuk is in an odd spot because of his run potential. He owns only two RBIs over his last 10 games, but he has also posted seven runs over that span. I don’t expect that rate to be sustainable, as the Blue Jays simply don’t have the skill after him to continue to produce at such a rate. Furthermore, they own a 3.8 implied run total tonight, and could struggle to produce runs at all. Grichuk will see limited opportunities at runs and RBIs tonight, and his 33% hard-hit and 27% fly ball rates with a 92 mph exit velocity over the last 15 days leave plenty to be desired. The under is significantly more appealing than the over in this play.
Play $50 on Jake Odorizzi OVER 5.5 strikeouts and Randal Grichuk UNDER 1.5 runs and RBIs to win $123.50 (2.47x)
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