Over Under 2/2 – Houston Astros/Oakland A’s
Collins McHugh saw his K/9 jump to 11.7 with the Houston Astros last season, and it has stuck there for the start of 2019. Furthering the continuation of this success, McHugh posted a 33.2% K% in 2018, and it sits at 33.3% this season. His swinging strike percentage sat at 13.3% in 2018, and has moved only to 13.4% this season. He owns nine strikeouts in two of his three games this season, although he only recorded four strikeouts in his only matchup against the Oakland A’s. McHugh comes with elite strikeout potential, though, and I believe that game is more of an outlier than the expected. He should continue to find elite strikeout success in roughly six innings tonight. I have picked on Marco Estrada in every game this season, and I’ll continue to do so tonight. He owns a 4.87 ERA, but his 7.32 xFIP and 6.64 SIERA suggest he’ll see regression as he continue to throw for Oakland. He owns only a 4.4 K/9 to go along with an 11.5% K%. Estrada has also posted a 65.2% fly ball rate this season. He has been a reverse splits pitcher this season, and he gets a terrible matchup against the Houston Astros, who feature a plethora of powerful right-handed bats. I don’t expect Estrada to throw deep into this game, and Houston ranks second last on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat.
Play $50 on Collin McHugh OVER 5.5 strikeouts and Marco Estrada UNDER 3.5 strikeouts to win $117.50 (2.35x)
Over Under 2/2 – Cincinnati Reds/Los Angeles Angels
Kenta Maeda has struggled at times this season, and he has posted over five strikeouts in only one of his three starts. He owns an 8.0 K/9 with a 21.4% K%. Maeda also gets a tough matchup against the Cincinnati Reds, who rank in the bottom-five of the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. The Los Angeles Dodgers are notorious for pulling their pitchers early, and Maeda may struggle to find strikeouts, especially if he sees somewhat of limited innings in this game. I don’t feel overly confident in Tyler Mahle because of the upside of Los Angeles. If they’re hitting the ball well, Mahle will see a shortened start. If they aren’t, they have struggled with strikeouts. The Dodgers rank third on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, while Mahle owns a 9.8 K/9 with a 28.6% K% this season. Mahle has thrown five or more innings in each of his first two starts this season, and that may be the case again tonight. If he reaches six innings, I expect him to hit the over against Los Angeles.
Play $50 on Kenta Maeda UNDER 5.5 strikeouts and Tyler Mahle OVER 4.5 strikeouts to win $114.50 (2.29x)
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