Over Under 2/2 – Minnesota Twins/New York Mets
Noah Syndergaard possesses dominant stuff, but that hasn’t resulted in an an overly dominant strikeout rate in his career. Through 89 games (88 starts), he possesses a 9.9 K/9, and he has continued pace this season. Syndergaard has posted 13 strikeouts over 12 innings through two starts, and he’ll likely through roughly six innings again tonight. He gets a matchup against the Minnesota Twins, who rank last on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. This is simply a bad matchup for Syndergaard, especially early in the season when he’s less likely to throw deep into games. Jake Odorizzi is in an interesting spot. The New York Mets rank fifth on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat, which bodes well for Odorizzi’s over tonight. He has flashed tremendous strikeout potential early this season, and he owns a career 8.4 K/9. Through two starts this season, Odorizzi owns a 14.8% swinging strike percentage, which is significantly higher than his 10.2% from last season. New York features a dominant offense, but they also strikeout at one of the highest rates in the MLB. If Odorizzi can stay out of trouble, he should hit the over in this play.
Play $50 on Noah Syndergaard UNDER 7.5 strikeouts and Jake Odorizzi OVER 6.5 strikeouts to win $118 (2.36x)
Over Under 2/2 – Minnesota Twins/New York Mets
Brandon Woodruff has flashed solid strikeout potential, posting a 10.5 K/9 since 2018. He has also recorded 13 strikeouts in only nine innings through two starts this season. Woodruff hasn’t thrown more than five innings, and he could struggle to throw deep into this game, as well. Most importantly, he gets a matchup against the Los Angeles Angels, who rank third last on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. While Woodruff has solid strikeout potential over the entire season, he could struggle to produce in limited innings in a tough matchup. Felix Pena is in a similar situation as Woodruff. He owns a career 9.0 K/9, but has struggled to pitch deep into games. In two starts this season, Pena has totaled only 8.1 innings. I don’t expect him to throw much deeper into this game, and the Milwaukee Brewers rank as a slightly above average team in terms of strikeouts per at-bat this season. With two pitchers who will throw limited innings, the unders look more attractive than the overs in this game.
Play $50 on Brandon Woodruff UNDER 4.5 strikeouts and Felix Pena UNDER 4.5 strikeouts to win $126 (2.52x)
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