Over Under 2/2 – Los Angeles Angels/Seattle Mariners
This is a matchup between two pitchers that struggle to strike their opponents out against two teams that don’t often strikeout. Chris Stratton owns a 7.1 career K/9, and the Seattle Mariners rank in the bottom-six of the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. He isn’t known for pitching deep into games, and that will limit his strikeout potential in a difficult matchup. Felix Hernandez was one an elite pitcher in the MLB, but those days are long gone. Over his last three seasons, he owns a 7.4 K/9 over 70 games (69 starts). He gets a matchup against the Los Angeles Angels, who rank last on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. Similarly to Stratton, Hernandez isn’t expected to throw deep into this game, and he could struggle to find strikeouts in this matchup.
Play $50 on Chris Stratton UNDER 4.5 strikeouts and Felix Hernandez UNDER 4.5 strikeouts to win $114.50 (2.29x)
Over Under 2/2 – Houston Astros/Texas Rangers
Brad Peacock is an interesting option. He plays for the Houston Astros, who tend to get the most out of their pitchers in terms of strikeouts. With that being said, throughout his career, Peacock owns a 30.5% K% as a reliever compared to only a 23% K% as a starter. His 13.3 K/9 from the bullpen last season is simply unsustainable as a starter, although he posted an 11.0 K/9 generally as a starter in 2017. Prior to that, Peacock owned an 8.1 K/9 from 2013-16 with Houston. He gets a matchup against the Texas Rangers, who are an offense that is at their best at home. Peacock isn’t overly likely to throw deep into this game, which will limit his strikeout potential, as well. Drew Smyly will be taking the mound for Texas, and he gets a terrible matchup against Houston. The Astros rank fourth last on the slate in strikeouts per at-bat. Smyly hasn’t thrown in the MLB since 2016, and he owns a career 8.7 K/9. More importantly, Smyly recorded only 13 innings over 5 starts in Spring Training. He’s highly unlikely to throw deep into games early in the season, and this is one of the worst matchups in the MLB for Smyly to return to. I’m loading up on unders on this odd Monday slate.
Play $50 on Brad Peacock UNDER 6.5 strikeouts and Drew Smyly UNDER 4.5 strikeouts to win $126 (2.52x)
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