Over Under 2/2 – New York Mets/Washington Nationals
Generally I don’t do this, but this is a play where I’m focusing on the pitchers rather than the opposing offenses. The New York Mets and Washington Nationals both rank as above average offenses in terms of strikeouts per at-bat. With that being said, Patrick Corbin posted an elite 11.1 K/9 last season. He was slightly better in the second half, where his K% jumped to 31.4%. Corbin could also work through New York’s lineup a few times, and three of their top five hitters are left-handed. This is extremely beneficial, as Corbin also posted a 33.5% K% against lefties last season. If we want to move into questionable, but fun numbers, Corbin posted a ridiculous 36.7% K% in March and April last season. This may be a coincidence, or it may have to do in part to cold weather and hitters not being ready for the season. Zack Wheeler looked significantly better in the second half of last season, where his K% increased to 25.7%. Overall, he posted an 8.8 K/9 over his final 75 innings (second half of the season). Wheeler is still progressing as a player, and we could see a small uptick in K% this season once again.
Play $50 on Patrick Corbin OVER 6.5 strikeouts and Zack Wheeler OVER 5.5 strikeouts to win $123.50 (2.47x)
Over Under 2/2 – St. Louis Cardinals/Milwaukee Brewers
Michael Wacha only threw in 15 games last season, but he has proven time and time again that he simply isn’t a strikeout pitcher. In those 15 games, he posted a 7.6 K/9, which is only slightly lower than his career 8.0 K/9. He threw limited innings throughout Spring Training, but boasted only a 5.8 K/9 then. Wacha also owns a career 20.7% K% as a starter, and the Milwaukee Brewers strikeout at the fourth lowest clip on the slate. When you add in the fact that the St. Louis Cardinals could be careful with Wacha’s innings early in the season, there’s no reason to believe he’ll be able to hit the over. Christian Yelich is simply an elite player. He’s hitting .400 with three home runs. He has also scored four runs with five RBIs through only three games. He’s also hitting .301 against right-handed pitching in his career, and that number jumped significantly in 2018. Most importantly, Yelich is hitting second in the Brewers lineup, putting him in an elite position for either RBI’s or runs. They have an implied total of 4.4 runs today, and Yelich is such a large part of the offense, that he should be contributing to that total at some level.
Play $50 on Michael Wacha UNDER 5.5 strikeouts and Christian Yelich OVER 0.5 runs and RBIs to win $127 (2.54x)
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NOTE: Props, players, and contests are subject to change throughout the day. Make sure to get these plays in as soon as possible.
